A shortwave upper trough and tightening surface low move into the waters off the Oregon Coast late Thursday. Radar echoes indicate a well-developed shield of moisture spinning moving into western Washington and Oregon Thursday afternoon. Despite the gradual weakening of the low, the increasingly compact system could crank out significant snow totals through mid-day Friday. Precipitation will focus to the north of the low center with a tight band of moderate to heavy rain and snow from the central Washington Cascades southward. Cool air east of the Cascade Crest combined with light E low-level flow should keep precipitation frozen at the passes. The E flow will also enable significant snowfall east of the Cascade Crest. Strong ridgeline winds wrapping around the compact low center will focus on Mt. Hood Thursday night, easing slightly on Friday.
Rain and snow taper and end from north to south on Friday as the shortwave trough slides ashore and flow switches westerly. Westerly flow allows temperatures to moderate along the east slopes of the Cascades. Significant snowfall should be mostly confined to Mt. Hood during the daylight hours Friday. Storm total snowfall should be in the 4-12" from the mountain loop from the Mountain Loop southward, with higher totals possible on the southern volcanoes. Higher snow levels further south in the range may limit lower elevation snowfall for Mt. Hood north to Mt. Rainier.
Friday afternoon, expect low clouds to remain banked against the west slopes of the Cascades with more sunshine east of the Cascade Crest as cool WNW flow spills over a weak offshore ridge. Expect little change in the pattern with generally an inch or less of snow in weak convergence over northern Washington Friday night into Saturday.
Weather Forecast
Olympics
West North
West Central
West South
Stevens Pass
Snoqualmie Pass
East North
East Central
East South
Mt. Hood
Use dropdown to select your zone
Thursday
Night
Moderate rain and snow.
Friday
Partly cloudy with isolated snow flurries early in the day.
Thursday
Night
Light rain and snow, decreasing or ending by morning.
Friday
Light snow flurries early, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Thursday
Night
Moderate rain and snow, heavy at times southern part.
Friday
Light snow tapering to snow flurries.
Thursday
Night
Heavy rain and snow at Paradise; moderate to heavy rain and snow at Crystal and White Pass.
Friday
Light to moderate snow early, tapering to flurries.
Thursday
Night
Decreasing moderate to heavy snow. Light E wind at pass level.
Friday
Light snow tapering to flurries early. Light E wind early switching W at the Pass.
Thursday
Night
Moderate to heavy snow (and rain at lower elevations west of the pass). Light E wind at pass level.
Friday
Light snow tapering to flurries. Light E wind early switching W at the Pass.
Thursday
Night
Decreasing light snow.
Friday
Snow flurries early, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy.
Thursday
Night
Moderate to heavy snow.
Friday
Light snow tapering to flurries, then mostly cloudy skies.
Thursday
Night
Moderate to occasionally heavy rain and snow.
Friday
Light rain and snow tapering by afternoon.
Thursday
Night
Moderate rain and snow. Gradual cooling. Strong ridgeline winds.
Friday
Moderate to occasionally heavy rain and snow becoming light or ending in the afternoon. Cooling temperatures. Moderate ridgeline winds with strong gusts.
Issued: 2:03 PM PST Thursday, November 18, 2021
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
Friday
Friday Night
Saturday
4 pm - 4 am
4 am - 4 pm
4 pm - 4 am
4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge
0.50
0
0
0
Mt Baker Ski Area
0.25
0
0
LT 0.10
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass
0.50
LT 0.10
LT 0.10
LT 0.10
Stevens Pass
0.75
LT 0.10
0
LT 0.10
Snoqualmie Pass
1.00
LT 0.10
0
0
Crystal Mt
0.75 -1.00
LT 0.25
0
0
Paradise
1.50
LT 0.25
0
0
White Pass
0.50 - 0.75
LT 0.25
0
0
Washington Pass
0.25
0
0
0
Mission Ridge
0.50 - 0.75
LT 0.25
0
0
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head
0.75
LT 0.10
0
0
Tieton River - Darland Mt.
0.50 - 0.75
LT 0.10
0
0
Mt Hood Meadows
0.50
0.50
0
0
Timberline
0.50
0.50 - 0.75
0
0
Hurricane Ridge
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
0.50
Friday
0
Friday Night
0
Saturday
0
Mt Baker Ski Area
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
0.25
Friday
0
Friday Night
0
Saturday
LT 0.10
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
0.50
Friday
LT 0.10
Friday Night
LT 0.10
Saturday
LT 0.10
Stevens Pass
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
0.75
Friday
LT 0.10
Friday Night
0
Saturday
LT 0.10
Snoqualmie Pass
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
1.00
Friday
LT 0.10
Friday Night
0
Saturday
0
Crystal Mt
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
0.75 -1.00
Friday
LT 0.25
Friday Night
0
Saturday
0
Paradise
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
1.50
Friday
LT 0.25
Friday Night
0
Saturday
0
White Pass
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
0.50 - 0.75
Friday
LT 0.25
Friday Night
0
Saturday
0
Washington Pass
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
0.25
Friday
0
Friday Night
0
Saturday
0
Mission Ridge
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
0.50 - 0.75
Friday
LT 0.25
Friday Night
0
Saturday
0
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
0.75
Friday
LT 0.10
Friday Night
0
Saturday
0
Tieton River - Darland Mt.
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
0.50 - 0.75
Friday
LT 0.10
Friday Night
0
Saturday
0
Mt Hood Meadows
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
0.50
Friday
0.50
Friday Night
0
Saturday
0
Timberline
Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night
0.50
Friday
0.50 - 0.75
Friday Night
0
Saturday
0
Issued: 2:03 PM PST Thursday, November 18, 2021
Snow Level (ft)
Thursday
Evening*
Thursday
Night*
Friday
Morning
Friday
Afternoon
Friday
Evening
Friday
Night
Saturday
Morning
Saturday
Afternoon
Olympics
2500'
3000'
3000'
4500'
3500'
2500'
3000'
4000'
West North
3000'
3000'
2500'
3500'
3500'
2000'
2000'
3000'
West Central
3000'
2500'
3000'
3500'
3500'
2000'
2500'
3000'
West South
4000'
4500'
4000'
3500'
3500'
3000'
2500'
4000'
Stevens Pass
2000'
2000'
2000'
3000'
3500'
2500'
3000'
3500'
Snoqualmie Pass
2500'
2500'
2500'
3000'
3000'
3000'
3000'
3500'
East North
1500'
1000'
1000'
4000'
4000'
2500'
2500'
3500'
East Central
2500'
2500'
2500'
3000'
3500'
2500'
2500'
4000'
East South
4000'
4000'
3500'
4000'
4000'
3000'
2500'
4000'
Mt. Hood
6500'
5500'
5500'
3500'
4000'
3500'
3500'
4000'
Olympics
Elevation
Thursday
Evening*
2500'
Thursday
Night*
3000'
Friday
Morning
3000'
Friday
Afternoon
4500'
Friday
Evening
3500'
Friday
Night
2500'
Saturday
Morning
3000'
Saturday
Afternoon
4000'
West North
Elevation
Thursday
Evening*
3000'
Thursday
Night*
3000'
Friday
Morning
2500'
Friday
Afternoon
3500'
Friday
Evening
3500'
Friday
Night
2000'
Saturday
Morning
2000'
Saturday
Afternoon
3000'
West Central
Elevation
Thursday
Evening*
3000'
Thursday
Night*
2500'
Friday
Morning
3000'
Friday
Afternoon
3500'
Friday
Evening
3500'
Friday
Night
2000'
Saturday
Morning
2500'
Saturday
Afternoon
3000'
West South
Elevation
Thursday
Evening*
4000'
Thursday
Night*
4500'
Friday
Morning
4000'
Friday
Afternoon
3500'
Friday
Evening
3500'
Friday
Night
3000'
Saturday
Morning
2500'
Saturday
Afternoon
4000'
Stevens Pass
Elevation
Thursday
Evening*
2000'
Thursday
Night*
2000'
Friday
Morning
2000'
Friday
Afternoon
3000'
Friday
Evening
3500'
Friday
Night
2500'
Saturday
Morning
3000'
Saturday
Afternoon
3500'
Snoqualmie Pass
Elevation
Thursday
Evening*
2500'
Thursday
Night*
2500'
Friday
Morning
2500'
Friday
Afternoon
3000'
Friday
Evening
3000'
Friday
Night
3000'
Saturday
Morning
3000'
Saturday
Afternoon
3500'
East North
Elevation
Thursday
Evening*
1500'
Thursday
Night*
1000'
Friday
Morning
1000'
Friday
Afternoon
4000'
Friday
Evening
4000'
Friday
Night
2500'
Saturday
Morning
2500'
Saturday
Afternoon
3500'
East Central
Elevation
Thursday
Evening*
2500'
Thursday
Night*
2500'
Friday
Morning
2500'
Friday
Afternoon
3000'
Friday
Evening
3500'
Friday
Night
2500'
Saturday
Morning
2500'
Saturday
Afternoon
4000'
East South
Elevation
Thursday
Evening*
4000'
Thursday
Night*
4000'
Friday
Morning
3500'
Friday
Afternoon
4000'
Friday
Evening
4000'
Friday
Night
3000'
Saturday
Morning
2500'
Saturday
Afternoon
4000'
Mt. Hood
Elevation
Thursday
Evening*
6500'
Thursday
Night*
5500'
Friday
Morning
5500'
Friday
Afternoon
3500'
Friday
Evening
4000'
Friday
Night
3500'
Saturday
Morning
3500'
Saturday
Afternoon
4000'
Issued: 2:03 PM PST Thursday, November 18, 2021
5000' Temperatures (°F)
Thursday
Night
Friday
Max / Min
Max / Min
Olympics
31 / 24
30 / 19
West North
28 / 25
27 / 22
West Central
30 / 28
29 / 22
West South
34 / 31
31 / 24
Stevens Pass
27 / 23
28 / 22
Snoqualmie Pass
30 / 26
28 / 19
East North
23 / 18
30 / 23
East Central
28 / 23
29 / 23
East South
34 / 29
31 / 26
Mt. Hood
37 / 35
37 / 27
Olympics
5000' Temperature Forecast (Max / Min)
Thursday
Night
31 / 24
Friday
30 / 19
West North
5000' Temperature Forecast (Max / Min)
Thursday
Night
28 / 25
Friday
27 / 22
West Central
5000' Temperature Forecast (Max / Min)
Thursday
Night
30 / 28
Friday
29 / 22
West South
5000' Temperature Forecast (Max / Min)
Thursday
Night
34 / 31
Friday
31 / 24
Stevens Pass
5000' Temperature Forecast (Max / Min)
Thursday
Night
27 / 23
Friday
28 / 22
Snoqualmie Pass
5000' Temperature Forecast (Max / Min)
Thursday
Night
30 / 26
Friday
28 / 19
East North
5000' Temperature Forecast (Max / Min)
Thursday
Night
23 / 18
Friday
30 / 23
East Central
5000' Temperature Forecast (Max / Min)
Thursday
Night
28 / 23
Friday
29 / 23
East South
5000' Temperature Forecast (Max / Min)
Thursday
Night
34 / 29
Friday
31 / 26
Mt. Hood
5000' Temperature Forecast (Max / Min)
Thursday
Night
37 / 35
Friday
37 / 27
Issued: 2:03 PM PST Thursday, November 18, 2021
Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday
Evening
Thursday
Night
Friday
Morning
Friday
Afternoon
Olympics
SSE 0-10
NNE 0-10
NNW 5-15
WNW 5-15
West North
S 5-15
NNW 0-10
NNW 0-10
WSW 0-10
West Central
SSE 5-15
S 0-10
WNW 5-15
WNW 10-20
West South
SSW 10-20
SW 5-15
NW 5-15
NW 5-15
Stevens Pass
SSE 5-15
SSE 0-10
WNW 5-15
WNW 10-20
Snoqualmie Pass
ESE 5-15
SE 0-10
WNW 10-20
WNW 15-25
East North
SSE 5-15
SW 0-10
NW 10-20
NW 10-20
East Central
SSW 10-20
SW 5-15
NW 10-20
NW 15-25
East South
SSW 5-15
SSW 10-20
WNW 10-20
NW 10-20
Mt. Hood
SW 30-40
SW 30-40
W 25-35
WNW 20-30
Olympics
Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday
Evening
SSE
0-10
Thursday
Night
NNE
0-10
Friday
Morning
NNW
5-15
Friday
Afternoon
WNW
5-15
West North
Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday
Evening
S
5-15
Thursday
Night
NNW
0-10
Friday
Morning
NNW
0-10
Friday
Afternoon
WSW
0-10
West Central
Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday
Evening
SSE
5-15
Thursday
Night
S
0-10
Friday
Morning
WNW
5-15
Friday
Afternoon
WNW
10-20
West South
Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday
Evening
SSW
10-20
Thursday
Night
SW
5-15
Friday
Morning
NW
5-15
Friday
Afternoon
NW
5-15
Stevens Pass
Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday
Evening
SSE
5-15
Thursday
Night
SSE
0-10
Friday
Morning
WNW
5-15
Friday
Afternoon
WNW
10-20
Snoqualmie Pass
Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday
Evening
ESE
5-15
Thursday
Night
SE
0-10
Friday
Morning
WNW
10-20
Friday
Afternoon
WNW
15-25
East North
Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday
Evening
SSE
5-15
Thursday
Night
SW
0-10
Friday
Morning
NW
10-20
Friday
Afternoon
NW
10-20
East Central
Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday
Evening
SSW
10-20
Thursday
Night
SW
5-15
Friday
Morning
NW
10-20
Friday
Afternoon
NW
15-25
East South
Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday
Evening
SSW
5-15
Thursday
Night
SSW
10-20
Friday
Morning
WNW
10-20
Friday
Afternoon
NW
10-20
Mt. Hood
Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday
Evening
SW
30-40
Thursday
Night
SW
30-40
Friday
Morning
W
25-35
Friday
Afternoon
WNW
20-30
Issued: 2:03 PM PST Thursday, November 18, 2021
Extended Weather Synopsis
A ridge amplifies as it moves onshore Saturday night into Sunday, bringing milder air and rising high freezing levels from south to north across the region. Easterly low-level flow develops gradually and should move significantly colder air pooled at low levels east of the Cascade Crest through the mountain gaps. On Sunday, expect cloudier conditions in the north due to a warm front bringing precipitation to British Columbia. The associated cold front should approach the PNW coastline late Monday with 6,000-11,000 ft freezing levels across the region.
The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.
The 5000’ temperature forecast does not imply a trend over the 12 hr period and only represents the max and min temperatures within a 12 hr period in the zone. The 6-hr snow level forecast, the forecast discussion, and weather forecast sections may add detail regarding temperature trends.
The snow level forecast represents the general snow level over a 6 hr time period. Freezing levels are forecast when precipitation is not expected.
*Easterly or offshore flow is highlighted with an asterisk when we expect relatively cool east winds in the major Cascade Passes. Easterly flow will often lead to temperature inversions and is a key variable for forecasting precipitation type in the Cascade Passes. Strong easterly flow events can affect terrain on a more regional scale.
Ridgeline winds are the average wind speed and direction over a 6 hr time period.
The wind forecast represents an elevation range instead of a single elevation slice. The elevation range overlaps with the near and above treeline elevation bands in the avalanche forecast and differs per zone.
Wind direction indicates the direction the wind originates or comes from on the 16-point compass rose.
Water Equivalent (WE) is the liquid water equivalent of all precipitation types; rain, snow, ice pellets, etc., forecast to the hundredth of an inch at specific locations. To use WE as a proxy for snowfall amounts, start with a snow to water ratio of 10:1 (10 inches of snow = 1 inch WE). Temperatures at or near freezing will generally have a lower ratio (heavy wet snow) and very cold temperatures can have a much higher ratio (dry fluffy snow).