Issued: 2:00 PM PST Monday, December 7, 2020
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Monday night through Thursday

Warm frontal moisture has held its fire on the northern end of the Olympic peninsula or the NW part of Whatcom county for much of the day. Mild temperatures and high freezing levels are all throughout the region save some of the colder deeper valleys in the northeast Cascades or at Cascade Pass level where easterly flow continues to create temperature inversions. 

The frontal boundary that has been quasi-stationary over south and central British Columbia will sag south tonight over the Olympics and northwest Cascades before pushing further south tomorrow. While the rainfall intensity looks likely to peter out as it pushes south of the Hwy 2 and I-90 corridors tomorrow, some forecast models suggest another wave developing along the frontal boundary to reinvigorate precipitation rates for the south Washington Cascades and Mt hood - yikes. Right now this forecast represents the solution where the precipitation totals and rates taper from north to south through tomorrow afternoon. Strong westerly winds are a better bet out ahead and with the front, as it sags south late tonight and tomorrow.  High snow levels will push well over onto the east slopes of the Cascades with this storm. 

A drying trend should ensue Tuesday night. Forecast models disagree whether or not a weak surface trough will pass through on Wednesday. Snow levels will trend cooler Tuesday night and Wednesday. 

Weather Forecast

Hurricane Ridge
Monday Night Light rain developing in the evening. Mild. Strong winds.
Mt. Baker
Monday Night Moderate rain and high elevation snow developing in the evening. Mild. Strong winds.
Washington Pass and Leavenworth
Monday Night Light rain and snow developing overnight. Mild. Strong to extreme alpine winds.
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass
Monday Night Cloudy with light rain developing late. Mild. Light east wind at Pass level becoming variable late. Increasing ridgeline winds late.
Mt. Rainier, Crystal and White Pass
Monday Night Cloudy, mild, increasing ridgeline winds late.
Mt. Hood
Monday Night Becoming overcast overnight. Mild.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Monday Evening Snow Level * 10000' 7000' 7500' 9000' 9000' 9000' 9000' 12000'
Monday Night Snow Level * 10000' 8000' 8500' 9000' 9000' 9000' 9000' 12000'
Tuesday Morning Snow Level 7500' 7500' 8000' 8000' 8000' 8000' 9000' 12000'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level 6000' 6000' 6000' 7000' 6500' 6500' 8000' 8000'
Tuesday Evening Snow Level 5500' 5000' 5000' 6000' 5500' 5500' 6500' 7500'
Tuesday Night Snow Level 5000' 4000' 4000' 5000' 4500' 4500' 5000' 7000'
Wednesday Morning Snow Level 4000' 3500' 3500' 4500' 4000' 4000' 4500' 5500'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Monday Evening Snow Level
10000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
10000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
7500'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
6000'
Tuesday Evening Snow Level
5500'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
5000'
Wednesday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Monday Evening Snow Level
7000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
8000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
7500'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
6000'
Tuesday Evening Snow Level
5000'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
4000'
Wednesday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Washington Pass Elevation
Monday Evening Snow Level
7500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
8500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
8000'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
6000'
Tuesday Evening Snow Level
5000'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
4000'
Wednesday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Leavenworth Elevation
Monday Evening Snow Level
9000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
9000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
8000'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
7000'
Tuesday Evening Snow Level
6000'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
5000'
Wednesday Morning Snow Level
4500'
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Monday Evening Snow Level
9000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
9000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
8000'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
6500'
Tuesday Evening Snow Level
5500'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
4500'
Wednesday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Monday Evening Snow Level
9000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
9000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
8000'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
6500'
Tuesday Evening Snow Level
5500'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
4500'
Wednesday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Monday Evening Snow Level
9000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
9000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
9000'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
8000'
Tuesday Evening Snow Level
6500'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
5000'
Wednesday Morning Snow Level
4500'
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Monday Evening Snow Level
12000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
12000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Morning Snow Level
12000'
Tuesday Afternoon Snow Level
8000'
Tuesday Evening Snow Level
7500'
Tuesday Night Snow Level
7000'
Wednesday Morning Snow Level
5500'
Wednesday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Monday Night Thursday Thursday Night Thursday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge 0.25 0.50 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area 0.50 - 0.75 0.75 -1.00 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Washington Pass LT 0.25 0.50 0 0
Leavenworth 0 LT 0.25 0 0
Stevens Pass LT 0.10 0.50 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Snoqualmie Pass LT 0.10 0.50 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Mission Ridge 0 LT 0.10 0 0
Crystal Mt 0 LT 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Paradise 0 0.25 - 0.50 0.25 LT 0.10
White Pass 0 LT 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Mt Hood Meadows 0 LT 0.10 0.25 LT 0.10
0 LT 0.10 0.25 LT 0.10
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Monday Night 0.25
Thursday 0.50
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Thursday LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation Forecast
Monday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Thursday 0.75 -1.00
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Thursday LT 0.10
Washington Pass Precipitation Forecast
Monday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0.50
Thursday Night 0
Thursday 0
Leavenworth Precipitation Forecast
Monday Night 0
Thursday LT 0.25
Thursday Night 0
Thursday 0
Stevens Pass Precipitation Forecast
Monday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0.50
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation Forecast
Monday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0.50
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10
Mission Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Monday Night 0
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0
Thursday 0
Crystal Mt Precipitation Forecast
Monday Night 0
Thursday LT 0.25
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10
Paradise Precipitation Forecast
Monday Night 0
Thursday 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday Night 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10
White Pass Precipitation Forecast
Monday Night 0
Thursday LT 0.25
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation Forecast
Monday Night 0
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10
Timberline Precipitation Forecast
Monday Night 0
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Monday Evening SW 30 - 40 S 25 - 35 SW 20 - 30 SW 20 - 30 SW 5 - 15
Monday Night SW 30 - 40 S 40 - 50 SW 25 - 35 WSW 25 - 35 SW 15 - 25
Tuesday Morning W 15 - 25 SW 10 - 20 WSW 30 - 40 WSW 30 - 40 SW 15 - 25
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Monday Evening SW 30 - 40
Monday Night SW 30 - 40
Tuesday Morning W 15 - 25
Tuesday Afternoon WNW 10 - 20
Mt. Baker Elevation
Monday Evening S 25 - 35
Monday Night S 40 - 50
Tuesday Morning SW 10 - 20
Tuesday Afternoon W 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Monday Evening SW 20 - 30
Monday Night SW 25 - 35
Tuesday Morning WSW 30 - 40
Tuesday Afternoon W 15 - 25
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Monday Evening SW 20 - 30
Monday Night WSW 25 - 35
Tuesday Morning WSW 30 - 40
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 15 - 25
Mt. Hood Elevation
Monday Evening SW 5 - 15
Monday Night SW 15 - 25
Tuesday Morning SW 15 - 25
Tuesday Afternoon W 15 - 25
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Monday Evening SW 30 - 40
Monday Night SW 30 - 40
Tuesday Morning W 15 - 25
Tuesday Afternoon WNW 10 - 20
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Monday Evening S 25 - 35
Monday Night S 40 - 50
Tuesday Morning SW 10 - 20
Tuesday Afternoon W 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Monday Evening SW 20 - 30
Monday Night SW 25 - 35
Tuesday Morning WSW 30 - 40
Tuesday Afternoon W 15 - 25
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Monday Evening SW 20 - 30
Monday Night WSW 25 - 35
Tuesday Morning WSW 30 - 40
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 15 - 25
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Monday Evening SW 5 - 15
Monday Night SW 15 - 25
Tuesday Morning SW 15 - 25
Tuesday Afternoon W 15 - 25

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Monday Evening SW 40 - 50 SW 50 - 60 SW 50 - 60 SW 50 - 60 WSW 40 - 60
Monday Night SW 35 - 45 WSW 55 - 65 SW 55 - 65 SW 45 - 55 W 30 - 40
Tuesday Morning SW 30 - 40 WSW 40 - 50 SW 55 - 65 SW 45 - 55 WSW 40 - 50
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Monday Evening SW 40 - 50
Monday Night SW 35 - 45
Tuesday Morning SW 30 - 40
Tuesday Afternoon W 20 - 30
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Monday Evening SW 50 - 60
Monday Night WSW 55 - 65
Tuesday Morning WSW 40 - 50
Tuesday Afternoon W 25 - 35
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Monday Evening SW 50 - 60
Monday Night SW 55 - 65
Tuesday Morning SW 55 - 65
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 40 - 50
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Monday Evening SW 50 - 60
Monday Night SW 45 - 55
Tuesday Morning SW 45 - 55
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 35 - 45
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Monday Evening WSW 40 - 60
Monday Night W 30 - 40
Tuesday Morning WSW 40 - 50
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 35 - 45

Extended Weather Synopsis for Thursday night through Thursday

Forecast models are out of phase beginning Tuesday (as in tomorrow) so that puts a big question mark on timing and tracking weather systems in the extended forecast. What looks likely at this point is a weather system every other day through Friday bringing light to moderate amounts of new snow with seasonally cool snow levels (snow down to at least the major Cascade Passes). A more vigorous storm cycle may start either this weekend or early next week. 

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Wednesday Night Snow Level 2500' - 3500' 3500' - 4500' 3500' - 4500'
Thursday Snow Level 3000' - 4000' 3000' - 4000' 3000' - 4000'
Thursday Night Snow Level 1000' - 2000' 1000' - 2000' 1500' - 2500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Wednesday Night Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
Thursday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
1000' - 2000'
Friday Snow Level
1000' - 2000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Night Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
Thursday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
1000' - 2000'
Friday Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Night Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
Thursday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
1500' - 2500'
Friday Snow Level
1500' - 2500'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Dec 7, 2020

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