Issued: 1:54 PM PST Saturday, November 14, 2020
by Dallas Glass

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Saturday night through Monday

The active weather pattern continues in the Pacific Northwest as several storms impact our region over the next several days. First up, Saturday night a well-developed winter storm will affect the mountains bringing rain/snow, strong winds, and a slight warming trend to most locations. The brunt of this system will be felt in southern Washington and northern Oregon as the jetstream focuses the firehose on the volcanoes in this area. As the associated fronts swing through overnight and early Sunday, all trailheads across our region should see an increase in rain and snow. Plenty of moisture, a favorable wind direction, and instability in the atmospheric will allow precipitation to spill over the Cascade crest and impact areas further east. This first system looks windy. Winds should turn westerly and increase, peaking in most locations late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. This could cause very difficult travel conditions at higher elevations and in exposed terrain. 

Things appear to quite down Sunday evening as the low pressure associated with this storm shifts east into British Columbia. You're most likely to encounter a lingering shower near the volcanoes, major passes, and in locations close to the Canadian border. The brake in the action hangs around early Monday morning but quickly ends as the next storm bears down on the region. 

Monday's storm system looks warm and wet, with much of the moisture streaming up from near Hawaii. Look for precipitation to spread from south to north as warm moist air pushes into the area. Snow levels will rise throughout the day with a marked increase in the afternoon as the warm front arrives. This warm weather will likely bring rain to near or above ridge rest in most areas. As the jet stream shifts north late Monday into Monday night, we should see a decrease in precipitation but the warm air stays in place. 

Weather Forecast

Hurricane Ridge
Saturday Night Light to moderate rain and snow showers, becoming more consistent in the pre-dawn hours. Moderate winds.
Mt. Baker
Saturday Night Snow overnight with slight warming. Moderate winds increasing in the pre-dawn hours.
Washington Pass and Leavenworth
Saturday Night Snow showers overnight with moderate westerly winds
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass
Saturday Night Rain and snow showers with a slight warming trend. Light east flow at pass level decreasing overnight and becoming westerly. Moderate ridgetop winds increasing.
Mt. Rainier, Crystal and White Pass
Saturday Night Rain and snow with a slight warming trend. Very strong to extreme alpine winds increasing overnight.
Mt. Hood
Saturday Night Moderate to heavy rain and snow with warming overnight. Winds increasing becoming strong as they turn westerly.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Saturday Evening Snow Level * 3000' 2000' 2000' 2500' 2500' 2500' 3000' 4000'
Saturday Night Snow Level 4000' 2500' 2000' 2500' 3500' 3500' 4000' 5500'
Sunday Morning Snow Level 3500' 3000' 3000' 3500' 4000' 4000' 4000' 5000'
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level 3500' 3000' 3000' 3500' 3500' 3500' 4000' 4500'
Sunday Evening Snow Level * 3000' 2500' 2500' 3000' 3500' 3500' 4000' 4500'
Sunday Night Snow Level * 3000' 2000' 2000' 3000' 3500' 3500' 3500' 4500'
Monday Morning Snow Level * 3000' 2500' 2500' 3000' 3000' 3500' 3000' 7500'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Saturday Evening Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
4000'
Sunday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Sunday Evening Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Morning Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
5500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Baker Elevation
Saturday Evening Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
2500'
Sunday Morning Snow Level
3000'
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
Sunday Evening Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Morning Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Washington Pass Elevation
Saturday Evening Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
2000'
Sunday Morning Snow Level
3000'
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
Sunday Evening Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Morning Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Leavenworth Elevation
Saturday Evening Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
2500'
Sunday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Sunday Evening Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Morning Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Stevens Pass Elevation
Saturday Evening Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
3500'
Sunday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Sunday Evening Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Morning Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Saturday Evening Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
3500'
Sunday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Sunday Evening Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Morning Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Saturday Evening Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
4000'
Sunday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Sunday Evening Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Morning Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
6500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Saturday Evening Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
5500'
Sunday Morning Snow Level
5000'
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
4500'
Sunday Evening Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Night Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Morning Snow Level
7500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Afternoon Snow Level
8000'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Monday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge 0.25 0.25 LT 0.10 0.50 - 0.75
Mt Baker Ski Area 0.75 0.75 -1.00 LT 0.25 0.50
Washington Pass 0.25 - 0.50 0.50 LT 0.25 0.25
Leavenworth 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 0 0.25
Stevens Pass 0.50 0.50 - 0.75 0.25 0.50
Snoqualmie Pass 0.50 - 0.75 0.75 LT 0.25 0.50 - 0.75
Mission Ridge 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10 0 0.25
Crystal Mt 0.50 - 0.75 0.25 LT 0.10 0.50
Paradise 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.75
White Pass 0.75 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 0.50
Mt Hood Meadows 1.50 LT 0.25 LT 0.25 0.50
1.50 - 2.00 LT 0.25 LT 0.25 0.50
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Saturday Night 0.25
Sunday 0.25
Sunday Night LT 0.10
Monday 0.50 - 0.75
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation Forecast
Saturday Night 0.75
Sunday 0.75 -1.00
Sunday Night LT 0.25
Monday 0.50
Washington Pass Precipitation Forecast
Saturday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Sunday 0.50
Sunday Night LT 0.25
Monday 0.25
Leavenworth Precipitation Forecast
Saturday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Sunday LT 0.25
Sunday Night 0
Monday 0.25
Stevens Pass Precipitation Forecast
Saturday Night 0.50
Sunday 0.50 - 0.75
Sunday Night 0.25
Monday 0.50
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation Forecast
Saturday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Sunday 0.75
Sunday Night LT 0.25
Monday 0.50 - 0.75
Mission Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Saturday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Sunday LT 0.10
Sunday Night 0
Monday 0.25
Crystal Mt Precipitation Forecast
Saturday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Sunday 0.25
Sunday Night LT 0.10
Monday 0.50
Paradise Precipitation Forecast
Saturday Night 1.00
Sunday 0.75
Sunday Night 0.25
Monday 0.75
White Pass Precipitation Forecast
Saturday Night 0.75
Sunday 0.25 - 0.50
Sunday Night LT 0.25
Monday 0.50
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation Forecast
Saturday Night 1.50
Sunday LT 0.25
Sunday Night LT 0.25
Monday 0.50
Timberline Precipitation Forecast
Saturday Night 1.50 - 2.00
Sunday LT 0.25
Sunday Night LT 0.25
Monday 0.50

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Saturday Evening SSW 15 - 25 SSE 10 - 20 SSE 10 - 20 S 10 - 20 SSW 15 - 25
Saturday Night WSW 10 - 20 WSW 15 - 25 SSW 15 - 25 SW 10 - 20 WSW 25 - 35
Sunday Morning W 25 - 35 W 20 - 30 W 25 - 35 WSW 15 - 25 W 30 - 40
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Saturday Evening SSW 15 - 25
Saturday Night WSW 10 - 20
Sunday Morning W 25 - 35
Sunday Afternoon W 15 - 25
Mt. Baker Elevation
Saturday Evening SSE 10 - 20
Saturday Night WSW 15 - 25
Sunday Morning W 20 - 30
Sunday Afternoon W 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Saturday Evening SSE 10 - 20
Saturday Night SSW 15 - 25
Sunday Morning W 25 - 35
Sunday Afternoon W 20 - 30
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Saturday Evening S 10 - 20
Saturday Night SW 10 - 20
Sunday Morning WSW 15 - 25
Sunday Afternoon W 15 - 25
Mt. Hood Elevation
Saturday Evening SSW 15 - 25
Saturday Night WSW 25 - 35
Sunday Morning W 30 - 40
Sunday Afternoon W 25 - 35
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Saturday Evening SSW 15 - 25
Saturday Night WSW 10 - 20
Sunday Morning W 25 - 35
Sunday Afternoon W 15 - 25
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Saturday Evening SSE 10 - 20
Saturday Night WSW 15 - 25
Sunday Morning W 20 - 30
Sunday Afternoon W 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Saturday Evening SSE 10 - 20
Saturday Night SSW 15 - 25
Sunday Morning W 25 - 35
Sunday Afternoon W 20 - 30
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Saturday Evening S 10 - 20
Saturday Night SW 10 - 20
Sunday Morning WSW 15 - 25
Sunday Afternoon W 15 - 25
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Saturday Evening SSW 15 - 25
Saturday Night WSW 25 - 35
Sunday Morning W 30 - 40
Sunday Afternoon W 25 - 35

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Saturday Evening SW 30 - 40 SW 25 - 35 SW 30 - 40 SW 40 - 55 W 55 - 70
Saturday Night SW 30 - 40 SW 35 - 45 W 45 - 60 W 55 - 70 W 55 - 70
Sunday Morning W 45 - 60 W 40 - 55 W 50 - 65 W 45 - 60 W 50 - 65
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Saturday Evening SW 30 - 40
Saturday Night SW 30 - 40
Sunday Morning W 45 - 60
Sunday Afternoon W 40 - 55
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Saturday Evening SW 25 - 35
Saturday Night SW 35 - 45
Sunday Morning W 40 - 55
Sunday Afternoon W 30 - 40
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Saturday Evening SW 30 - 40
Saturday Night W 45 - 60
Sunday Morning W 50 - 65
Sunday Afternoon W 45 - 60
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Saturday Evening SW 40 - 55
Saturday Night W 55 - 70
Sunday Morning W 45 - 60
Sunday Afternoon W 40 - 55
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Saturday Evening W 55 - 70
Saturday Night W 55 - 70
Sunday Morning W 50 - 65
Sunday Afternoon W 45 - 60

Extended Weather Synopsis for Monday night through Wednesday

After a warm and wet Monday, precipitation should decrease from south to north with some lingering showers, especially near the Canadian border. Warm air and high snow levels remain in place into Tuesday, before an associated cold front swings through the area late in the day or early evening. As the colder air moves into the region, we should see an increase in rain and snow in the mountains. There are still some details to work out in the weather models with this system, but a consistent source of moisture and a favorable wind direction seems to keep significant precipitation over the mountains through at least Wednesday. 

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Monday Night Snow Level 5500' - 7500' 7000' - 8000' 7000' - 8000' *
Tuesday Snow Level 5000' - 7000' 5000' - 7000' 5000' - 7000' *
Tuesday Night Snow Level 3500' - 4500' 3500' - 4500' 4000' - 5000' *
Mt. Baker Elevation
Monday Night Snow Level
5500' - 7500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Snow Level
5000' - 7000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Monday Night Snow Level
7000' - 8000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Snow Level
5000' - 7000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
3500' - 4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Snow Level
2500' - 3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Monday Night Snow Level
7000' - 8000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Snow Level
5000' - 7000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Night Snow Level
4000' - 5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Snow Level
3000' - 4000'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Nov 13, 2020

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