Issued: 2:40 PM PST Friday, February 22, 2019
by Robert Hahn

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Friday night through Saturday

A quick-moving and narrow front will continue to move SE through the southern Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood area through the evening hours. In its wake, several pronounced convergence zones have been consistently developing in the models. The Olympic convergence will bring up to 0.5" of snow water equivalent to areas near Snoqualmie Pass while a Vancouver Island convergence zone is forecast to bring up to 0.5-0.75" of water to parts of the mountain loop, but might impact Stevens as well. The exact locations of these convergence bands are difficult to predict, but they will bring substantial additional snowfall. Frontal energy focusing on Mt. Hood will bring the most water to that region as west winds behind the front continue orographic enhanced snow showers.

The upper low associated with Friday's frontal system will linger off the coast of Vancouver Island Saturday and Saturday night before moving onshore over Washington State on Sunday. The jetstream will remain south of Washington State, focused on Oregon, keeping the highest snow totals over the Hood area throughout the forecast period, but on Saturday even there it will be light.

Due to an amplifying ridge over Alaska, the jet makes a very sharp bend, bringing cold air from interior northern Canada into our near-shore waters, allowing it to pick up moisture, and then pushing that cold, unstable air onshore into Oregon, particularly starting on Saturday night and Sunday as significant snow totals are forecast in the Mt. Hood and potentially into the southern Washington Cascades.

Weather Forecast

Hurricane Ridge
Friday Night Light snow showers at times. Cool. Moderate winds decreasing to light to moderate.
Mt. Baker
Friday Night Light snow showers at times. Cool. Light to moderate winds.
Washington Pass and Leavenworth
Friday Night Light snow showers at times, heaviest in convergence bands closer to the Cascade Crest. Cool. Light to moderate winds.
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass
Friday Night Bands of moderate to heavy snow in convergence near Snoqualmie Pass and likely slightly north of Stevens Pass during the evening, then becoming light snow showers. Cool. Light to moderate 5000 ft and west winds through the passes.
Mt. Rainier, Crystal and White Pass
Friday Night Light snow early, then becoming very light snow showers. Cool. Light to moderate winds.
Mt. Hood
Friday Night Moderate snow becoming light after midnight. Cool. Strong winds decreasing slightly after midnight.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Friday Evening Snow Level 1500' 1000' 500' 500' 1000' 1500' 1500' 2000'
Friday Night Snow Level 1000' 500' 0' 0' 0' 500' 500' 1500'
Saturday Morning Snow Level 1000' 500' 0' 0' 0' 500' 500' 1000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level 1500' 1000' 1000' 1000' 1000' 1000' 1500' 2000'
Saturday Evening Snow Level * 1500' 1000' 1000' 1000' 1000' 1500' 1500' 2000'
Saturday Night Snow Level * 1500' 1000' 500' 500' 1000' 1000' 1500' 2000'
Sunday Morning Snow Level * 1000' 500' 0' 0' 0' 500' 500' 1500'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Friday Evening Snow Level
1500'
Friday Night Snow Level
1000'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
1000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
1500'
Saturday Evening Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Morning Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Baker Elevation
Friday Evening Snow Level
1000'
Friday Night Snow Level
500'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
1000'
Saturday Evening Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Morning Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Washington Pass Elevation
Friday Evening Snow Level
500'
Friday Night Snow Level
0'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
0'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
1000'
Saturday Evening Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Morning Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Leavenworth Elevation
Friday Evening Snow Level
500'
Friday Night Snow Level
0'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
0'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
1000'
Saturday Evening Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Morning Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Stevens Pass Elevation
Friday Evening Snow Level
1000'
Friday Night Snow Level
0'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
0'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
1000'
Saturday Evening Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Morning Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Evening Snow Level
1500'
Friday Night Snow Level
500'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
1000'
Saturday Evening Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Morning Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Friday Evening Snow Level
1500'
Friday Night Snow Level
500'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
1500'
Saturday Evening Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Morning Snow Level
500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Evening Snow Level
2000'
Friday Night Snow Level
1500'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
1000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
Saturday Evening Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Saturday Night Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Morning Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Sunday Afternoon Snow Level
0'
(Easterly Flow *)

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Saturday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.10 LT 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area LT 0.25 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Washington Pass LT 0.10 LT 0.10 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Leavenworth LT 0.10 LT 0.10 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Stevens Pass 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Snoqualmie Pass 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Mission Ridge LT 0.10 LT 0.10 0.25 LT 0.10
Crystal Mt LT 0.10 LT 0.10 LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Paradise 0.25 0.25 0.25 LT 0.25
White Pass 0.25 LT 0.10 LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows 0.75 0.25 0.50 0.75
0.75 0.25 0.50 0.75 -1.00
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.25
Saturday Night LT 0.25
Saturday LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation Forecast
Friday Night LT 0.25
Saturday 0.25
Saturday Night LT 0.25
Saturday LT 0.10
Washington Pass Precipitation Forecast
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.10
Saturday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.10
Leavenworth Precipitation Forecast
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.10
Saturday Night LT 0.25
Saturday LT 0.10
Stevens Pass Precipitation Forecast
Friday Night 0.25
Saturday LT 0.25
Saturday Night LT 0.25
Saturday LT 0.10
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation Forecast
Friday Night 0.25
Saturday LT 0.25
Saturday Night LT 0.25
Saturday LT 0.10
Mission Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.10
Saturday Night 0.25
Saturday LT 0.10
Crystal Mt Precipitation Forecast
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.10
Saturday Night LT 0.25
Saturday LT 0.25
Paradise Precipitation Forecast
Friday Night 0.25
Saturday 0.25
Saturday Night 0.25
Saturday LT 0.25
White Pass Precipitation Forecast
Friday Night 0.25
Saturday LT 0.10
Saturday Night LT 0.25
Saturday LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation Forecast
Friday Night 0.75
Saturday 0.25
Saturday Night 0.50
Saturday 0.75
Timberline Precipitation Forecast
Friday Night 0.75
Saturday 0.25
Saturday Night 0.50
Saturday 0.75 -1.00

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Friday Evening W 15 - 25 SW 10 - 20 WSW 15 - 25 WSW 10 - 20 WSW 30 - 45
Friday Night W 10 - 20 SW 10 - 20 WSW 10 - 20 WSW 10 - 20 W 25 - 35
Saturday Morning WSW 10 - 20 SW 10 - 20 W 10 - 20 WSW 10 - 20 W 25 - 35
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Friday Evening W 15 - 25
Friday Night W 10 - 20
Saturday Morning WSW 10 - 20
Saturday Afternoon WSW 5 - 15
Mt. Baker Elevation
Friday Evening SW 10 - 20
Friday Night SW 10 - 20
Saturday Morning SW 10 - 20
Saturday Afternoon S 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Evening WSW 15 - 25
Friday Night WSW 10 - 20
Saturday Morning W 10 - 20
Saturday Afternoon WSW 5 - 15
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Friday Evening WSW 10 - 20
Friday Night WSW 10 - 20
Saturday Morning WSW 10 - 20
Saturday Afternoon WSW 5 - 15
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Evening WSW 30 - 45
Friday Night W 25 - 35
Saturday Morning W 25 - 35
Saturday Afternoon WSW 15 - 25
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Friday Evening W 15 - 25
Friday Night W 10 - 20
Saturday Morning WSW 10 - 20
Saturday Afternoon WSW 5 - 15
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Friday Evening SW 10 - 20
Friday Night SW 10 - 20
Saturday Morning SW 10 - 20
Saturday Afternoon S 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Friday Evening WSW 15 - 25
Friday Night WSW 10 - 20
Saturday Morning W 10 - 20
Saturday Afternoon WSW 5 - 15
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Friday Evening WSW 10 - 20
Friday Night WSW 10 - 20
Saturday Morning WSW 10 - 20
Saturday Afternoon WSW 5 - 15
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Friday Evening WSW 30 - 45
Friday Night W 25 - 35
Saturday Morning W 25 - 35
Saturday Afternoon WSW 15 - 25

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Friday Evening W 20 - 30 W 25 - 35 W 25 - 35 W 30 - 45 WSW 40 - 60
Friday Night WSW 15 - 25 W 20 - 30 W 25 - 35 W 25 - 35 WSW 40 - 60
Saturday Morning WSW 10 - 20 W 10 - 20 W 20 - 30 W 25 - 35 W 30 - 45
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Friday Evening W 20 - 30
Friday Night WSW 15 - 25
Saturday Morning WSW 10 - 20
Saturday Afternoon SW 5 - 15
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Friday Evening W 25 - 35
Friday Night W 20 - 30
Saturday Morning W 10 - 20
Saturday Afternoon WSW 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Friday Evening W 25 - 35
Friday Night W 25 - 35
Saturday Morning W 20 - 30
Saturday Afternoon WSW 15 - 25
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Friday Evening W 30 - 45
Friday Night W 25 - 35
Saturday Morning W 25 - 35
Saturday Afternoon WSW 15 - 25
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Friday Evening WSW 40 - 60
Friday Night WSW 40 - 60
Saturday Morning W 30 - 45
Saturday Afternoon WSW 25 - 35

Extended Weather Synopsis for Saturday night through Saturday

The digging trough over our region and extending into the near-shore waters will spawn a developing surface low that is expected to track somewhere across the Pacific Northwest Monday through Monday night, bringing heavy snowfall and likely strong winds, but models are still highly uncertain about the track of this potentially impactful system. By Tuesday we may either still be in the storm track or under cool snow showery regimes with an upper trough, the models have diverged.

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Sunday Night Snow Level 0' - 1000' 0' - 1000' 500' - 1500' *
Monday Snow Level 0' - 1000' 0' - 1000' 0' - 1000' *
Monday Night Snow Level 0' - 1000' 0' - 1000' 1000' - 2000' *
Mt. Baker Elevation
Sunday Night Snow Level
0' - 1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Snow Level
0' - 1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
0' - 1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Snow Level
0' - 1000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Sunday Night Snow Level
0' - 1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Snow Level
0' - 1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
0' - 1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Snow Level
0' - 1000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Sunday Night Snow Level
500' - 1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Snow Level
0' - 1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Monday Night Snow Level
1000' - 2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Tuesday Snow Level
2000' - 3000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Feb 22, 2019

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.