Issued: 2:56 PM PST Friday, February 16, 2018
by Robert Hahn

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Friday & Friday

The Pacific Northwest will experience very active and stormy weather on Friday and Saturday. Nestled between a high around 140 W off the coast of California and a continental-scale trough over the Canadian Interior, a strong NW jetstream is tracking storms across our region.

Friday's broad, but shallow trough will slide across our area this morning and will move east of the area by the afternoon as the strong jetstream slides gradually northward, enabling a warming trend through the early evening hours. The shortwave has a frontal feature which will likely cross the Washington Cascades during the afternoon hours and the Mt. Hood area during the evening hours. Crest-level winds will be moderate over the Cascades and will generally increase as the front approaches and decrease behind the front, but the front does not bring much cooling until the late evening hours. Moderate snow (and rain at lower elevations) will continue over the Washington Cascades today, becoming lighter and showery by the late afternoon and evening hours. Light to moderate rain and snow will develop at Mt. Hood on Friday morning and will continue through Friday night. Precipitation above pass level should remain snow throughout the storm, but right near pass level at Snoqualmie, rain will mix with snow between 4 PM and 10 PM.

Saturday will feature a deepening low pressure with an associated warm front-cold front structure lacking in Friday's system. This storm system will be significantly stronger than Friday's system with significant warm frontal lift combined with NW flow aloft that should be an ideal setup for very significant mountain snowfall. Stormy to very stormy conditions will spread into all areas during the early morning hours on Saturday as the associated surface low pressure slides down the British Columbia coastline, crossing Vancouver Island during the morning hours. The storm will once again feature mostly snow with a brief warm-up, peaking around 11 AM that will bring a potential brief changeover to rain right at Snoqualmie pass and a brief changeover to rain on the lower flanks of Mt. Hood during the late morning and early afternoon hours before a cold frontal passage from 10 AM to 2PM rapidly lowers snow levels. The heaviest snowfall intensities will be during the morning hours as the front approaches, with moderate to heavy snow showers and continued stormy conditions and gradually decreasing winds Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

Weather Forecast

Olympics
Friday Partly cloudy skies with rising freezing levels.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy with clouds lowering and thickening by morning with light snow beginning in the early morning hours.
Saturday Light snow. Strong W-SW winds.
Washington Cascades near and west of the Crest including Stevens, Snoqualmie and White Passes
Friday A convergence zone has set up near stevens pass on Monday afternoon. Most of the shower activity is expected to be focused near this precipitation band over the central Cascades. Moderate W-SW winds at the surface. Snow levels will rise to pass level or just above pass level at Snoqualmie by late afternoon.
Friday Night Decreasing W-SW winds and light snow showers tapering off by midnight. Increasing stormy weather and snow re-developing in most areas by 4 AM. Slight cooling after midnight.
Saturday Very stormy with heavy low-elevation rain and mountain snow, strong to very strong crest-level winds. Temperatures peaking around 11 AM then falling rapidly. Possible changeover to rain at Snoqualmie pass level around 11 AM before changing back to snow.
East Slopes of the Washington Cascades
Friday Some light snow near the crest, particularly central part. Moderate W-SW winds.
Friday Night A few snow showers near the crest, but widespread moderate rain and snow developing by morning with increasing moderate to strong crest-level winds developing.
Saturday Very stormy with heavy snows and strong to very strong W-SW winds.
Mt. Hood
Friday Increasing moderate rain and snow. Moderate W-SW winds becoming strong by afternoon. Rising snow levels.
Friday Night Moderate rain and snow continue, with slightly decreased winds during the evening hours then increasing winds becoming strong by early morning.
Saturday Very stormy with very strong winds, very heavy rain and snow, and temperatures peaking around 11 AM.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Friday Afternoon Snow Level 3500' 3000' 3000' ' ' 3500' ' 3000'
Friday Night Snow Level 2000' 2000' 2000' ' ' 2500' ' 4000'
Saturday Morning Snow Level 3500' 2000' 2500' ' ' 3500' ' 4500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level 2000' 2000' 2000' ' ' 2000' ' 3500'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Friday Night Snow Level
2000'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
Saturday Night Snow Level
1000'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
Friday Night Snow Level
2000'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
2000'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
Saturday Night Snow Level
0'
Washington Pass Elevation
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
Friday Night Snow Level
2000'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
2500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
Saturday Night Snow Level
0'
Leavenworth Elevation
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Friday Night Snow Level
'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Saturday Night Snow Level
'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Friday Night Snow Level
'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Saturday Night Snow Level
'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Friday Night Snow Level
2500'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
Saturday Night Snow Level
0'
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Friday Night Snow Level
'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
'
Saturday Night Snow Level
'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
3000'
Friday Night Snow Level
4000'
Saturday Morning Snow Level
4500'
Saturday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Saturday Night Snow Level
1000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Friday Friday
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.25 0 - 0.75
Mt Baker Ski Area 0.25 - 0.50 1.00 - 1.50
Washington Pass LT 0.25 0 - 1.50
Stevens Pass 0.75 - 1.00 0 - 2.00
Snoqualmie Pass 0 - 1.50 0 - 2.00
Mission Ridge LT 0.10 0.75 - 1.00
Crystal Mt 0 - 0.50 0 - 1.00
Paradise 0 - 1.00 3.00 - 4.00
White Pass 0.50 - 0.75 0 - 2.00
Mt Hood Meadows 0.50 - 0.75 0 - 2.00
0.75 - 1.00 2.00 - 3.00

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Friday Afternoon W 15 - 25 W 15 - 25 WSW 30 - 40 --- - WSW 35 - 50
Friday Night WSW 15 - 25 WSW 10 - 20 WSW 20 - 30 --- - WSW 30 - 40
Saturday Morning SW 40 - 60 S 30 - 40 SW 40 - 60 --- - WSW 45 - 65
Saturday Afternoon W 40 - 60 WSW 25 - 35 WSW 45 - 65 --- - WSW 60 - 80
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Friday Afternoon W 15 - 25
Friday Night WSW 15 - 25
Saturday Morning SW 40 - 60
Saturday Afternoon W 40 - 60
Saturday Night NNE 15 - 25
Mt. Baker Elevation
Friday Afternoon W 15 - 25
Friday Night WSW 10 - 20
Saturday Morning S 30 - 40
Saturday Afternoon WSW 25 - 35
Saturday Night ENE 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Afternoon WSW 30 - 40
Friday Night WSW 20 - 30
Saturday Morning SW 40 - 60
Saturday Afternoon WSW 45 - 65
Saturday Night WSW 30 - 40
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Friday Afternoon --- -
Friday Night --- -
Saturday Morning --- -
Saturday Afternoon --- -
Saturday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Afternoon WSW 35 - 50
Friday Night WSW 30 - 40
Saturday Morning WSW 45 - 65
Saturday Afternoon WSW 60 - 80
Saturday Night WSW 35 - 50
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Friday Afternoon W 15 - 25
Friday Night WSW 15 - 25
Saturday Morning SW 40 - 60
Saturday Afternoon W 40 - 60
Saturday Night NNE 15 - 25
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Friday Afternoon W 15 - 25
Friday Night WSW 10 - 20
Saturday Morning S 30 - 40
Saturday Afternoon WSW 25 - 35
Saturday Night ENE 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Friday Afternoon WSW 30 - 40
Friday Night WSW 20 - 30
Saturday Morning SW 40 - 60
Saturday Afternoon WSW 45 - 65
Saturday Night WSW 30 - 40
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Friday Afternoon --- -
Friday Night --- -
Saturday Morning --- -
Saturday Afternoon --- -
Saturday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Friday Afternoon WSW 35 - 50
Friday Night WSW 30 - 40
Saturday Morning WSW 45 - 65
Saturday Afternoon WSW 60 - 80
Saturday Night WSW 35 - 50

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Friday Afternoon W 20 - 30 W 30 - 40 W 50 - 70 --- - W 65 -
Friday Night WSW 25 - 35 WSW 25 - 35 W 40 - 65 --- - W 45 - 65
Saturday Morning WSW 50 - 70 WSW 45 - 65 WSW 65 - 85 --- - WSW 60 - 80
Saturday Afternoon W 35 - 50 W 50 - 70 W 60 - 80 --- - W 70 - 90
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Friday Afternoon W 20 - 30
Friday Night WSW 25 - 35
Saturday Morning WSW 50 - 70
Saturday Afternoon W 35 - 50
Saturday Night WSW 15 - 25
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Friday Afternoon W 30 - 40
Friday Night WSW 25 - 35
Saturday Morning WSW 45 - 65
Saturday Afternoon W 50 - 70
Saturday Night WSW 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Friday Afternoon W 50 - 70
Friday Night W 40 - 65
Saturday Morning WSW 65 - 85
Saturday Afternoon W 60 - 80
Saturday Night WSW 40 - 60
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Friday Afternoon --- -
Friday Night --- -
Saturday Morning --- -
Saturday Afternoon --- -
Saturday Night --- -
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Friday Afternoon W 65 -
Friday Night W 45 - 65
Saturday Morning WSW 60 - 80
Saturday Afternoon W 70 - 90
Saturday Night WSW 45 - 65

Extended Weather Synopsis for Friday night through Friday

On Sunday, the upper low settles over Western Washington and a surface modified arctic front pass from north to south across Washington state during the daylight hours. The frontal passage will switch the wind direction from W-NW to northerly and might produce some up-slope enhanced snow on the north slope of the Olympics. The front will usher in drier continental air, significantly reducing the light to moderate snow shower activity along the west slopes of the Cascades as it passes. Temperatures will drop further.

Sunday evening any lingering light snow showers will end and some light easterly flow may develop with northerly flow aloft. Sunday night will feature the coldest air of the season to date. Expect clear skies.

Monday will feature sunny, cold weather with northerly flow aloft and light surface winds switching from easterly to westerly.

Monday night, northerly flow aloft will continue with light and variable surface winds and clear skies.

Tuesday, northerly flow aloft will continue with light and variable surface winds and sunny.

 

Extended Weather

Olympics, Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood Area
Sunday Decreasing light to moderate snow showers, particularly in the afternoon. Cooling. Flow switching from W-NW to northerly with light to moderate winds. Sunday evening, light snow showers decreasing and ending. Very cold. Monday Monday will feature sunny, cold sunny weather and light surface winds switching from easterly to westerly. Clear weather will continue Monday night with light and variable surface winds. Tuesday Tuesday will feature sunny mostly skies with light and variable surface winds.

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Sunday Snow Level 0' - 0' 0' - 0' 0' - 1000'
Sunday Night Snow Level 0' - 0' 0' - 0' 0' - 0'
Monday Freezing Level 0' - 1000' 0' - 1000' 0' - 1000'
Monday Night Freezing Level 0' - 1000' 0' - 1000' 0' - 1000'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Sunday Snow Level
0' - 0'
Sunday Night Snow Level
0' - 0'
Monday Freezing Level
0' - 1000'
Monday Night Freezing Level
0' - 1000'
Tuesday Freezing Level
0' - 1000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Sunday Snow Level
0' - 0'
Sunday Night Snow Level
0' - 0'
Monday Freezing Level
0' - 1000'
Monday Night Freezing Level
0' - 1000'
Tuesday Freezing Level
0' - 1000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Sunday Snow Level
0' - 1000'
Sunday Night Snow Level
0' - 0'
Monday Freezing Level
0' - 1000'
Monday Night Freezing Level
0' - 1000'
Tuesday Freezing Level
0' - 2000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Feb 16, 2018

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