Issued: 2:01 PM PST Friday, November 15, 2024
by Dallas Glass

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis

Welcome to the 2024-25 NWAC winter forecasting season!

Friday night and Saturday morning will be a bit of the proverbial "calm before the storm," ahead of a very wet and windy weekend. A few light isolated showers continue to linger around the Cascades Friday afternoon. However, most places are experiencing significant sun breaks or even mostly clear skies. Overnight temperatures will drop further, but increasing clouds should help prevent it from getting significantly colder. By the morning, clouds begin to thicken and lower as our first storm system arrives around midday.

With cold temperatures in place, the storm should initially start as snow for most of the Olympics and the West-Slopes of the Cascades. However, a sharp warm front swings through in the late afternoon/early evening and sends temperatures rising. This will result in several notable changes in the storm. First, snow levels should climb well above pass and most trailhead elevations and peak between 5000 and 6500 ft in the early morning hours. Second, strong and gusty winds will develop along ridgelines and exposed areas. Lastly, more significant precipitation should spillover the Cascade Crest and bring heavier rain and snow to areas further east. 

Sunday morning should start with rain and high-elevation snow in the mountains. However, a trailing cold front will help snow levels lower throughout the day. Snow appears to return to the Passes sometime in the afternoon. Significant post-frontal showers should continue Sunday night and into Monday. The heaviest precipitation seems to focus on volcanoes and central Cascades. While all the weather models are confident in continued wet and cold weather, they disagree significantly about the amount of snow on Monday. 

 

Weather Forecast

Olympics
West North
West Central
West South
Stevens Pass
Snoqualmie Pass
East North
East Central
East South
Mt. Hood
Use dropdown to select your zone
Friday Night Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy.
Saturday Cloudy with snow changing to rain around mid-day. Moderate to strong and gusty SSW winds increasing.
Friday Night Partly to mostly cloudy becoming cloudy overnight.
Saturday Cloudy with precipitation increasing in the afternoon. Significant warming during the day. SSW winds increasing and becoming strong and gusty.
Friday Night Partly to mostly cloudy becoming cloudy overnight.
Saturday Cloudy with precipitation increasing in the afternoon. Significant warming during the day. SW winds increasing and becoming moderate to strong and gusty.
Friday Night Partly to partly to mostly cloudy becoming cloudy overnight.
Saturday Cloudy with precipitation increarsing in the afternoon. Significant warming with snow turning to rain at most trailheads. SW winds becoming moderate to strong and gusty.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy becoming cloudy overnight. Weak east flow possible at pass level.
Saturday Cloudy with rain and snow developing in the afternoon. Warming. Winds becoming moderate from the SW.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy becoming cloudy overnight. Weak east flow possible at pass level.
Saturday Cloudy with snow changing to rain at Pass level mid-day. Warming. SW winds becoming moderate to strong and gusty.
Friday Night Partly to mostly clear becoming cloudy.
Saturday Clouding with rain and snow developing in the afternoon. Warming. Winds becoming SW moderate.
Friday Night Partly to mostly clear becoming cloudy.
Saturday Cloudy with rain and snow developing in the afternoon. Heaviest near the Cascade crest. Warming. W winds increasing and becoming moderate to strong and gusty.
Friday Night Partly to mostly clear becoming cloudy.
Saturday Cloudy with rain and snow developing in the afternoon. Heaviest near the Cascade crest. Warming. W winds increasing and becoming moderate to strong and gusty.
Friday Night Partly to mostly clear becoming cloudy.
Saturday Cloudy with rain and snow developing in the afternoon. Significant warming. Winds becoming W moderate to strong and gusty.

Precipitation (in)

Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge 0 0.25 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25
Mt Baker Ski Area 0 0.50 1.00 - 1.50 0.75
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass 0 0.25 - 0.50 1.50 1.00
Stevens Pass 0 LT 0.25 1.00 - 1.50 0.75
Snoqualmie Pass 0 0.25 1.00 - 1.50 0.75 -1.00
Crystal Mt 0 LT 0.10 0.50 0.50
Paradise 0 0.25 - 0.50 1.50 0.75 -1.00
White Pass 0 0.25 0.75 -1.00 0.75
Washington Pass 0 LT 0.25 0.75 0.50
Mission Ridge 0 LT 0.10 0.25 - 0.50 0.25
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head 0 LT 0.25 0.75 -1.00 0.50 - 0.75
Tieton River - Darland Mt. 0 LT 0.10 0.50 0.50
Mt Hood Meadows 0 LT 0.25 1.00 - 1.50 1.00 - 1.50
Timberline 0 0.25 1.00 - 1.50 1.00 - 1.50
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday 0.25
Saturday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Sunday LT 0.25
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday 0.50
Saturday Night 1.00 - 1.50
Sunday 0.75
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday 0.25 - 0.50
Saturday Night 1.50
Sunday 1.00
Stevens Pass Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday LT 0.25
Saturday Night 1.00 - 1.50
Sunday 0.75
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday 0.25
Saturday Night 1.00 - 1.50
Sunday 0.75 -1.00
Crystal Mt Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday LT 0.10
Saturday Night 0.50
Sunday 0.50
Paradise Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday 0.25 - 0.50
Saturday Night 1.50
Sunday 0.75 -1.00
White Pass Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday 0.25
Saturday Night 0.75 -1.00
Sunday 0.75
Washington Pass Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday LT 0.25
Saturday Night 0.75
Sunday 0.50
Mission Ridge Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday LT 0.10
Saturday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Sunday 0.25
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday LT 0.25
Saturday Night 0.75 -1.00
Sunday 0.50 - 0.75
Tieton River - Darland Mt. Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday LT 0.10
Saturday Night 0.50
Sunday 0.50
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday LT 0.25
Saturday Night 1.00 - 1.50
Sunday 1.00 - 1.50
Timberline Precipitation (in)
Friday Night 0
Saturday 0.25
Saturday Night 1.00 - 1.50
Sunday 1.00 - 1.50

Snow Level (ft)

Friday Evening Friday Night Saturday Morning Saturday Afternoon Saturday Evening Saturday Night Sunday Morning Sunday Afternoon
Olympics 2500' 2500' 3000' 6000' 6500' 6500' 4000' 2500'
West North 2500' 2000' 2000' 3000' 4000' 4500' 4000' 3000'
West Central 2500' 2500' 2000' 3500' 4000' 5500' 5000' 3000'
West South 2500' 2500' 2000' 3500' 5000' 6500' 5500' 4000'
Stevens Pass 2500' 2500' 2000' 3000' 4000' 6000' 5000' 3500'
Snoqualmie Pass 2500' 2500' 2000' 3000' 4500' 6000' 5000' 3500'
East North 2500' 2000' 2000' 3000' 4000' 5000' 4500' 3500'
East Central 2500' 2500' 2000' 3000' 4000' 6000' 5500' 3500'
East South 2500' 2500' 2000' 3500' 4500' 6000' 5500' 4000'
Mt. Hood 3000' 2500' 2000' 3500' 6000' 6500' 6500' 4500'
Olympics Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night 2500'
Saturday Morning 3000'
Saturday Afternoon 6000'
Saturday Evening 6500'
Saturday Night 6500'
Sunday Morning 4000'
Sunday Afternoon 2500'
West North Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night 2000'
Saturday Morning 2000'
Saturday Afternoon 3000'
Saturday Evening 4000'
Saturday Night 4500'
Sunday Morning 4000'
Sunday Afternoon 3000'
West Central Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night 2500'
Saturday Morning 2000'
Saturday Afternoon 3500'
Saturday Evening 4000'
Saturday Night 5500'
Sunday Morning 5000'
Sunday Afternoon 3000'
West South Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night 2500'
Saturday Morning 2000'
Saturday Afternoon 3500'
Saturday Evening 5000'
Saturday Night 6500'
Sunday Morning 5500'
Sunday Afternoon 4000'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night 2500'
Saturday Morning 2000'
Saturday Afternoon 3000'
Saturday Evening 4000'
Saturday Night 6000'
Sunday Morning 5000'
Sunday Afternoon 3500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night 2500'
Saturday Morning 2000'
Saturday Afternoon 3000'
Saturday Evening 4500'
Saturday Night 6000'
Sunday Morning 5000'
Sunday Afternoon 3500'
East North Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night 2000'
Saturday Morning 2000'
Saturday Afternoon 3000'
Saturday Evening 4000'
Saturday Night 5000'
Sunday Morning 4500'
Sunday Afternoon 3500'
East Central Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night 2500'
Saturday Morning 2000'
Saturday Afternoon 3000'
Saturday Evening 4000'
Saturday Night 6000'
Sunday Morning 5500'
Sunday Afternoon 3500'
East South Elevation
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night 2500'
Saturday Morning 2000'
Saturday Afternoon 3500'
Saturday Evening 4500'
Saturday Night 6000'
Sunday Morning 5500'
Sunday Afternoon 4000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Evening 3000'
Friday Night 2500'
Saturday Morning 2000'
Saturday Afternoon 3500'
Saturday Evening 6000'
Saturday Night 6500'
Sunday Morning 6500'
Sunday Afternoon 4500'

5000' Temperatures (°F)

Friday Night Saturday
Max / Min Max / Min
Olympics 30 / 23 33 / 25
West North 29 / 23 29 / 22
West Central 31 / 25 32 / 25
West South 29 / 23 32 / 21
Stevens Pass 28 / 23 29 / 24
Snoqualmie Pass 31 / 23 32 / 24
East North 23 / 18 26 / 18
East Central 30 / 21 30 / 20
East South 30 / 22 31 / 21
Mt. Hood 24 / 21 31 / 23
Olympics 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 30 / 23
Saturday 33 / 25
West North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 29 / 23
Saturday 29 / 22
West Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 31 / 25
Saturday 32 / 25
West South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 29 / 23
Saturday 32 / 21
Stevens Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 28 / 23
Saturday 29 / 24
Snoqualmie Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 31 / 23
Saturday 32 / 24
East North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 23 / 18
Saturday 26 / 18
East Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 30 / 21
Saturday 30 / 20
East South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 30 / 22
Saturday 31 / 21
Mt. Hood 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Friday Night 24 / 21
Saturday 31 / 23

Ridgeline Winds (mph)

Friday Evening Friday Night Saturday Morning Saturday Afternoon
Olympics WNW 0-10 W 10-20 SSW 15-25 SSW 20-30
West North W 0-10 SW 5-15 SSW 20-30 SSW 25-35
West Central WNW 5-15 W 5-15 SW 15-25 SW 20-30
West South WNW 5-15 W 5-15 SW 10-20 SW 20-30
Stevens Pass WNW 5-15 W 5-15 W 5-15 SW 15-25
Snoqualmie Pass NW 5-15 W 5-15 W 10-20 SW 20-30
East North NNW 5-15 WNW 5-15 W 10-20 SW 15-25
East Central N 5-15 WNW 5-15 W 15-25 W 20-30
East South NNW 5-15 NW 5-15 W 10-20 W 20-30
Mt. Hood NW 10-20 NW 10-20 WNW 10-20 W 20-30
Olympics Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening WNW 0-10
Friday Night W 10-20
Saturday Morning SSW 15-25
Saturday Afternoon SSW 20-30
West North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening W 0-10
Friday Night SW 5-15
Saturday Morning SSW 20-30
Saturday Afternoon SSW 25-35
West Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening WNW 5-15
Friday Night W 5-15
Saturday Morning SW 15-25
Saturday Afternoon SW 20-30
West South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening WNW 5-15
Friday Night W 5-15
Saturday Morning SW 10-20
Saturday Afternoon SW 20-30
Stevens Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening WNW 5-15
Friday Night W 5-15
Saturday Morning W 5-15
Saturday Afternoon SW 15-25
Snoqualmie Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening NW 5-15
Friday Night W 5-15
Saturday Morning W 10-20
Saturday Afternoon SW 20-30
East North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening NNW 5-15
Friday Night WNW 5-15
Saturday Morning W 10-20
Saturday Afternoon SW 15-25
East Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening N 5-15
Friday Night WNW 5-15
Saturday Morning W 15-25
Saturday Afternoon W 20-30
East South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening NNW 5-15
Friday Night NW 5-15
Saturday Morning W 10-20
Saturday Afternoon W 20-30
Mt. Hood Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Friday Evening NW 10-20
Friday Night NW 10-20
Saturday Morning WNW 10-20
Saturday Afternoon W 20-30

Extended Weather Synopsis

The wet and windy weather seems to stay with us into the first part of the week. Showers continue Monday before slowly tapering off overnight. This will offer a short-lived break in the action. Tuesday should the driest day of the forecast period. Some areas could even see a few sun breaks especially east of the Cascade Crest. Our next major storm system appears to arrive Tuesday night. It's a long way our, and the details are still a bit hazy, but this storm looks colder with snow levels hovering around 2000-3000ft. 

Extended Snow Level (ft)

Sunday Night Monday Monday Night* Tuesday *
West North 2000' 1500' 1000' 1500'
Snoqualmie Pass 2000' 2000' 1500' 2000'
Mt. Hood 3000' 2500' 2000' 2500'
West North Elevation
Sunday Night 2000'
Monday 1500'
Monday Night* 1000'
Tuesday * 1500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Sunday Night 2000'
Monday 2000'
Monday Night* 1500'
Tuesday * 2000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Sunday Night 3000'
Monday 2500'
Monday Night* 2000'
Tuesday * 2500'

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Apr 28, 2024

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.

The 5000’ temperature forecast does not imply a trend over the 12 hr period and only represents the max and min temperatures within a 12 hr period in the zone. The 6-hr snow level forecast, the forecast discussion, and weather forecast sections may add detail regarding temperature trends.

The snow level forecast represents the general snow level over a 6 hr time period. Freezing levels are forecast when precipitation is not expected.

*Easterly or offshore flow is highlighted with an asterisk when we expect relatively cool east winds in the major Cascade Passes. Easterly flow will often lead to temperature inversions and is a key variable for forecasting precipitation type in the Cascade Passes. Strong easterly flow events can affect terrain on a more regional scale.

Ridgeline winds are the average wind speed and direction over a 6 hr time period.

The wind forecast represents an elevation range instead of a single elevation slice. The elevation range overlaps with the near and above treeline elevation bands in the avalanche forecast and differs per zone.

Wind direction indicates the direction the wind originates or comes from on the 16-point compass rose.

Water Equivalent (WE) is the liquid water equivalent of all precipitation types; rain, snow, ice pellets, etc., forecast to the hundredth of an inch at specific locations. To use WE as a proxy for snowfall amounts, start with a snow to water ratio of 10:1 (10 inches of snow = 1 inch WE). Temperatures at or near freezing will generally have a lower ratio (heavy wet snow) and very cold temperatures can have a much higher ratio (dry fluffy snow).

The label LT, is shorthand for ‘less than’.