Issued: 1:54 PM PST Wednesday, February 21, 2024
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis

Showers will continue to rotate inland from the SW this afternoon and this evening.  The quasi-stationary low-pressure system off the WA coast will slowly drift north overnight, and showers will begin to taper off for the southern WA Cascades and Mt Hood with the focus shifting to the Mountain Loop highway and areas further north along the west slopes of the Cascades.  

The upper low will drift further offshore tonight while weak upper level ridging builds over the inland NW.  We should see some lingering showers over the Olympics and northwest Cascades Thursday morning with dry conditions elsewhere. In the afternoon, skies will partially clear with a mix of sun and clouds. Lingering instability for the Olympics and west side of the Cascades will keep the chance of a stray shower in the forecast.  Freezing levels will be a smidge warmer on Thursday, likely topping out in the 4500-5500' range in the afternoon. 

After a mostly clear and dry Thursday night, the upper level ridge over the area will begin to flatten as the door begins to creak open towards a pattern change. Forecast models diverge how aggressively we'll shift to WNW flow.  Friday should be the mildest day this week, especially for the south WA Cascades and Mt Hood. If the pattern transition occurs quickly, areas further north could see increasing mid-level moisture and alpine WNW winds.  

Weather Forecast

Olympics
West North
West Central
West South
Stevens Pass
Snoqualmie Pass
East North
East Central
East South
Mt. Hood
Use dropdown to select your zone
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers.
Thursday Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered light rain and snow showers, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower.
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. Periods of moderate ridgeline winds.
Thursday Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered light rain and snow showers, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower.
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. Periods of moderate ridgeline winds.
Thursday Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered light rain and snow showers, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower.
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers becoming light scattered showers after midnight. Periods of moderate ridgeline winds.
Thursday Mostly cloudy in the morning with isolated light rain and snow showers, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower.
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers becoming light scattered showers after midnight. Light to moderate W winds at Pass level and ridgeline.
Thursday Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered light rain and snow showers, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower. Light west winds at Pass level and ridgeline.
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers becoming light scattered showers after midnight. Light to moderate W winds at Pass level, moderate at ridgeline.
Thursday Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered light rain and snow showers, becoming partly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower. Light west winds at Pass level and ridgeline.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy with light rain and snow showers then showers becoming scattered after midnight. Showers heaviest near the Cascades crest.Light to moderate ridgeline winds.
Thursday Mostly cloudy in the rmorning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy with light rain and snow showers then showers becoming scattered after midnight. Showers heaviest near the Cascades crest. Moderate ridgeline winds.
Thursday Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy with light rain and snow showers then showers becoming scattered after midnight. Showers heaviest near the Cascades crest.Moderate ridgeline winds.
Thursday Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers becoming light scattered showers after midnight. Moderate ridgeline winds.
Thursday Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon.

Precipitation (in)

Wednesday Night Thursday Thursday Night Friday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.25 LT 0.10 0 0
Mt Baker Ski Area 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 0 0
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10 0 0
Stevens Pass LT 0.25 LT 0.10 0 0
Snoqualmie Pass 0.25 - 0.50 0 0 0
Crystal Mt LT 0.10 0 0 0
Paradise 0.25 - 0.50 0 0 0
White Pass LT 0.25 0 0 0
Washington Pass LT 0.10 0 0 0
Mission Ridge LT 0.10 0 0 0
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head LT 0.25 0 0 0
Tieton River - Darland Mt. LT 0.10 0 0 0
Mt Hood Meadows LT 0.25 0 0 0
Timberline 0.25 - 0.50 0 0 0
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday LT 0.25
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Stevens Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday LT 0.10
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Crystal Mt Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Paradise Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
White Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Washington Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Mission Ridge Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Tieton River - Darland Mt. Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.10
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night LT 0.25
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0
Timberline Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday 0
Thursday Night 0
Friday 0

Snow Level (ft)

Wednesday Evening Wednesday Night Thursday Morning Thursday Afternoon Thursday Evening Thursday Night Friday Morning Friday Afternoon
Olympics 4000' 3500' 3500' 4500' 4500' 4500' 4500' 5000'
West North 4000' 3500' 3500' 4500' 4000' 3500' 4500' 5000'
West Central 4000' 3500' 3500' 5000' 4000' 3500' 4500' 5500'
West South 4000' 3500' 3500' 5000' 4000' 3500' 4500' 6000'
Stevens Pass 4000' 3500' 3500' 5000' 4000' 3500' 4500' 5500'
Snoqualmie Pass 4000' 3500' 3500' 5000' 4000' 3500' 4500' 5500'
East North 4000' 3500' 3500' 5000' 3500' 2000' 4000' 5500'
East Central 4000' 3500' 3500' 5000' 4000' 3000' 4000' 5500'
East South 4000' 3500' 3500' 5000' 4000' 3500' 4500' 6000'
Mt. Hood 4500' 4000' 4500' 5500' 6000' 6000' 6500' 7000'
Olympics Elevation
Wednesday Evening 4000'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 4500'
Thursday Evening 4500'
Thursday Night 4500'
Friday Morning 4500'
Friday Afternoon 5000'
West North Elevation
Wednesday Evening 4000'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 4500'
Thursday Evening 4000'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 4500'
Friday Afternoon 5000'
West Central Elevation
Wednesday Evening 4000'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 5000'
Thursday Evening 4000'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 4500'
Friday Afternoon 5500'
West South Elevation
Wednesday Evening 4000'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 5000'
Thursday Evening 4000'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 4500'
Friday Afternoon 6000'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening 4000'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 5000'
Thursday Evening 4000'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 4500'
Friday Afternoon 5500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening 4000'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 5000'
Thursday Evening 4000'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 4500'
Friday Afternoon 5500'
East North Elevation
Wednesday Evening 4000'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 5000'
Thursday Evening 3500'
Thursday Night 2000'
Friday Morning 4000'
Friday Afternoon 5500'
East Central Elevation
Wednesday Evening 4000'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 5000'
Thursday Evening 4000'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 4000'
Friday Afternoon 5500'
East South Elevation
Wednesday Evening 4000'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 5000'
Thursday Evening 4000'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 4500'
Friday Afternoon 6000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Evening 4500'
Wednesday Night 4000'
Thursday Morning 4500'
Thursday Afternoon 5500'
Thursday Evening 6000'
Thursday Night 6000'
Friday Morning 6500'
Friday Afternoon 7000'

5000' Temperatures (°F)

Wednesday Night Thursday
Max / Min Max / Min
Olympics 31 / 29 33 / 28
West North 31 / 28 32 / 28
West Central 31 / 28 32 / 28
West South 31 / 27 34 / 26
Stevens Pass 30 / 28 34 / 28
Snoqualmie Pass 31 / 28 33 / 27
East North 31 / 26 35 / 27
East Central 31 / 27 35 / 25
East South 31 / 26 35 / 25
Mt. Hood 31 / 28 35 / 25
Olympics 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 31 / 29
Thursday 33 / 28
West North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 31 / 28
Thursday 32 / 28
West Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 31 / 28
Thursday 32 / 28
West South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 31 / 27
Thursday 34 / 26
Stevens Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 30 / 28
Thursday 34 / 28
Snoqualmie Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 31 / 28
Thursday 33 / 27
East North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 31 / 26
Thursday 35 / 27
East Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 31 / 27
Thursday 35 / 25
East South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 31 / 26
Thursday 35 / 25
Mt. Hood 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 31 / 28
Thursday 35 / 25

Ridgeline Winds (mph)

Wednesday Evening Wednesday Night Thursday Morning Thursday Afternoon
Olympics SW 5-15 SW 5-15 S 5-15 S 0-10
West North S 10-20 S 10-20 S 5-15 S 0-10
West Central SW 10-20 SW 10-20 SW 5-15 SW 0-10
West South SW 15-25 SW 10-20 SW 5-15 SW 0-10
Stevens Pass SW 10-20 WSW 5-15 WSW 0-10 W 0-10
Snoqualmie Pass SW 10-20 WSW 10-20 WSW 5-15 W 0-10
East North SW 5-15 WSW 5-15 WSW 5-15 W 0-10
East Central WSW 10-20 WSW 10-20 W 5-15 W 0-10
East South WSW 10-20 WSW 10-20 W 5-15 WSW 0-10
Mt. Hood WSW 15-25 WSW 10-20 SW 5-15 SW 0-10
Olympics Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SW 5-15
Wednesday Night SW 5-15
Thursday Morning S 5-15
Thursday Afternoon S 0-10
West North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening S 10-20
Wednesday Night S 10-20
Thursday Morning S 5-15
Thursday Afternoon S 0-10
West Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SW 10-20
Wednesday Night SW 10-20
Thursday Morning SW 5-15
Thursday Afternoon SW 0-10
West South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SW 15-25
Wednesday Night SW 10-20
Thursday Morning SW 5-15
Thursday Afternoon SW 0-10
Stevens Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SW 10-20
Wednesday Night WSW 5-15
Thursday Morning WSW 0-10
Thursday Afternoon W 0-10
Snoqualmie Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SW 10-20
Wednesday Night WSW 10-20
Thursday Morning WSW 5-15
Thursday Afternoon W 0-10
East North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SW 5-15
Wednesday Night WSW 5-15
Thursday Morning WSW 5-15
Thursday Afternoon W 0-10
East Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening WSW 10-20
Wednesday Night WSW 10-20
Thursday Morning W 5-15
Thursday Afternoon W 0-10
East South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening WSW 10-20
Wednesday Night WSW 10-20
Thursday Morning W 5-15
Thursday Afternoon WSW 0-10
Mt. Hood Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening WSW 15-25
Wednesday Night WSW 10-20
Thursday Morning SW 5-15
Thursday Afternoon SW 0-10

Extended Weather Synopsis

A big storm is on tap for Sunday/Monday leading the way into a pattern change next week. It's the type of shift that has us thinking of new snow amounts in terms of feet instead of inches. There's uncertainty regarding just how much of a rollercoaster we're in for regarding snow levels, but there's increasing confidence we're in for a wet and active period. 

Before we get to end of the weekend, look for increasing clouds and WNW ridgeline winds, along with an increasing likelihood of precipitation for the WA Cascades on Saturday as weak disturbances slide down in WNW flow aloft. Similar to the timing discrepancies for Friday, some forecast models begin precipitation on Saturday along the west slopes of the Cascades, while others show an increase in clouds but a slower arrival of precipitation.  

Even if we squeak out a mostly dry Saturday, look for precipitation to increase Saturday night. This pattern will feature strong WNW flow with good orographics for the west slopes of the Cascades. While snow levels won't be high, they will likely sit around 3000-4000' for the majority of the weekend, translating into rain for lower trailheads and Passes including Snoqualmie and heavier wet snow at mid-elevations. If Sunday doesn't start stormy it will likely end there as a strong frontal system impacts the area. Behind the front, we'll see much colder air and low snow levels to start next week. 

Extended Snow Level (ft)

Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
West North 3500' 3500' 3500' 3500'
Snoqualmie Pass 4000' 4000' 4000' 4000'
Mt. Hood 6000' 4500' 4500' 4500'
West North Elevation
Friday Night 3500'
Saturday 3500'
Saturday Night 3500'
Sunday 3500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Night 4000'
Saturday 4000'
Saturday Night 4000'
Sunday 4000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Night 6000'
Saturday 4500'
Saturday Night 4500'
Sunday 4500'

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Feb 21, 2024

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.

The 5000’ temperature forecast does not imply a trend over the 12 hr period and only represents the max and min temperatures within a 12 hr period in the zone. The 6-hr snow level forecast, the forecast discussion, and weather forecast sections may add detail regarding temperature trends.

The snow level forecast represents the general snow level over a 6 hr time period. Freezing levels are forecast when precipitation is not expected.

*Easterly or offshore flow is highlighted with an asterisk when we expect relatively cool east winds in the major Cascade Passes. Easterly flow will often lead to temperature inversions and is a key variable for forecasting precipitation type in the Cascade Passes. Strong easterly flow events can affect terrain on a more regional scale.

Ridgeline winds are the average wind speed and direction over a 6 hr time period.

The wind forecast represents an elevation range instead of a single elevation slice. The elevation range overlaps with the near and above treeline elevation bands in the avalanche forecast and differs per zone.

Wind direction indicates the direction the wind originates or comes from on the 16-point compass rose.

Water Equivalent (WE) is the liquid water equivalent of all precipitation types; rain, snow, ice pellets, etc., forecast to the hundredth of an inch at specific locations. To use WE as a proxy for snowfall amounts, start with a snow to water ratio of 10:1 (10 inches of snow = 1 inch WE). Temperatures at or near freezing will generally have a lower ratio (heavy wet snow) and very cold temperatures can have a much higher ratio (dry fluffy snow).

The label LT, is shorthand for ‘less than’.