Issued: 2:10 PM PST Monday, November 21, 2022
by Robert Hahn

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis

Our region has been unusually dry since an atmospheric river came to a close on November 7th. An approaching system will end the 2-week dry spell during the next 24 hours. Satellite imagery shows a significant mass of clouds reaching ahead of an incoming frontal boundary. A shortwave feature re-invigorates the frontal boundary and deepens the associated trough as light rain and high-elevation snow moves into NW Washington late Monday night. That precipitation intensifies into the moderate/heavy range as it spreads south and eastward during the day. Snow levels will be elevated along the west slopes of the Cascades (4000 ft around Mt. Baker and nearly 6000 ft for Mt. Hood). However, with a cold air pool remaining in place east of the Cascades and easterly flow through the mountain gaps, we expect a significant snowfall event. Winds should shift westerly with a frontal passage during the evening hours, creating a messy wintry mix near the passes and likely limiting snow totals to the 5-8" range for Snoqualmie Pass. Stevens Pass, Washington Pass, and Mt. Baker should expect 8-14" of snow and Paradise 6-10" before westerly postfrontal shower activity mostly winds down overnight. Moderate to strong ridgeline winds will shift their focus from the Mt. Baker area early Monday to the east slopes of the Cascades and Mt. Hood areas late Monday into the evening hours.

Clouds and a slight chance of an isolated rain/snow shower lingers along the west slopes of the Cascades on Wednesday with temperatures near normal for late November.

A ridge of high pressure rebounds over the region Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday looks like the best chance of a dry day with mostly sunny skies and freezing levels rising to 8500-11000 ft to the west of the Cascade Crest. A weaker cold air pool redevelops along the east slopes of the Cascades keeping the passes cooler.

Weather Forecast

Olympics
West North
West Central
West South
Stevens Pass
Snoqualmie Pass
East North
East Central
East South
Mt. Hood
Use dropdown to select your zone
Monday Night Cloudy with periods of light rain and high-elevation snow developing overnight.
Tuesday Increasing light rain and snow. Snow levels lowering to around the top of the Hurricane Ridge access road.
Monday Night Cloudy with periods of light rain and high-elevation snow developing overnight.
Tuesday Light rain and snow become moderate and then heavy from mid-morning through the end of the day. Ridgeline winds peak in the moderate to strong range around mid-morning.
Monday Night Cloudy with periods of light rain and high-elevation snow developing in the early morning hours.
Tuesday Light rain and snow become heavy from mid-morning onwards.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy with clouds lowering and thickening by morning.
Tuesday Increasing light rain and snow becoming moderate (heavy at Paradise) from mid-morning onwards.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy with clouds lowering and thickening by morning. Light to occasionally moderate ridgeline and E wind at the Pass.
Tuesday Light snow becoming moderate in from mid-morning onwards. Snow may mix with rain west of the Pass. Light to moderate ridgeline and E wind at the Pass.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy with clouds lowering and thickening by morning.
Tuesday Light snow becoming moderate in from mid-morning onwards. Snow may mix with rain west of the Pass. Light to moderate ridgeline and E wind at the Pass.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy with clouds lowering and thickening by morning.
Tuesday Light snow becoming moderate to heavy from mid-morning onwards.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy with clouds lowering and thickening by morning.
Tuesday Light snow becoming moderate to occasionally heavy from mid-morning onwards. Moderate ridgeline winds increasing during the afternoon.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy with clouds lowering and thickening by morning.
Tuesday Light snow developing and becoming moderate to heavy from mid-morning onwards. Rain or freezing rain may mix with snow in areas closer to the Cascade Crest. Moderate ridgeline winds increasing during the afternoon.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy with clouds lowering and thickening by morning. Increasing light to moderate ridgeline winds.
Tuesday Moderate rain and snow developing from mid-morning onwards. Moderate to strong winds become more sustained in the strong range by the afternoon.

Issued: 2:10 PM PST Monday, November 21, 2022

Precipitation (in)

Monday Night Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge LT 0.10 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10 0
Mt Baker Ski Area LT 0.10 1.50 0.25 0
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass LT 0.10 1.00 - 1.50 0.25 - 0.50 0
Stevens Pass 0 0.50 - 0.75 0.25 - 0.50 0
Snoqualmie Pass 0 0.75 -1.00 0.50 - 0.75 0
Crystal Mt 0 0.25 - 0.50 0.25 0
Paradise 0 0.75 -1.00 0.50 0
White Pass 0 0.25 - 0.50 0.25 0
Washington Pass 0 0.50 - 0.75 0.25 0
Mission Ridge 0 0.25 LT 0.10 0
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head 0 0.50 0.25 - 0.50 0
Tieton River - Darland Mt. 0 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 0
Mt Hood Meadows 0 0.50 0.25 0
Timberline 0 0.50 0.25 0
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation (in)
Monday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday Night LT 0.10
Wednesday 0
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation (in)
Monday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday 1.50
Tuesday Night 0.25
Wednesday 0
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass Precipitation (in)
Monday Night LT 0.10
Tuesday 1.00 - 1.50
Tuesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Wednesday 0
Stevens Pass Precipitation (in)
Monday Night 0
Tuesday 0.50 - 0.75
Tuesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Wednesday 0
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation (in)
Monday Night 0
Tuesday 0.75 -1.00
Tuesday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Wednesday 0
Crystal Mt Precipitation (in)
Monday Night 0
Tuesday 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday Night 0.25
Wednesday 0
Paradise Precipitation (in)
Monday Night 0
Tuesday 0.75 -1.00
Tuesday Night 0.50
Wednesday 0
White Pass Precipitation (in)
Monday Night 0
Tuesday 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday Night 0.25
Wednesday 0
Washington Pass Precipitation (in)
Monday Night 0
Tuesday 0.50 - 0.75
Tuesday Night 0.25
Wednesday 0
Mission Ridge Precipitation (in)
Monday Night 0
Tuesday 0.25
Tuesday Night LT 0.10
Wednesday 0
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head Precipitation (in)
Monday Night 0
Tuesday 0.50
Tuesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Wednesday 0
Tieton River - Darland Mt. Precipitation (in)
Monday Night 0
Tuesday 0.25 - 0.50
Tuesday Night LT 0.25
Wednesday 0
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation (in)
Monday Night 0
Tuesday 0.50
Tuesday Night 0.25
Wednesday 0
Timberline Precipitation (in)
Monday Night 0
Tuesday 0.50
Tuesday Night 0.25
Wednesday 0

Issued: 2:10 PM PST Monday, November 21, 2022

Snow Level (ft)

Monday Evening* Monday Night* Tuesday Morning* Tuesday Afternoon* Tuesday Evening Tuesday Night Wednesday Morning Wednesday Afternoon
Olympics 7000' 6500' 5500' 5000' 4500' 4500' 3500' 5500'
West North 6500' 5500' 4000' 4000' 3500' 3000' 2500' 4000'
West Central 6500' 6000' 5000' 4000' 3500' 3500' 3000' 4000'
West South 6500' 6500' 6000' 5000' 4000' 3500' 3500' 5000'
Stevens Pass 2500' 2000' 2000' 2000' 3000' 3500' 3000' 4500'
Snoqualmie Pass 2500' 2000' 2500' 2500' 3500' 3500' 3000' 4500'
East North 1500' 500' 1000' 1000' 2500' 3000' 2500' 4500'
East Central 2000' 1500' 1000' 1000' 2500' 3000' 3500' 4500'
East South 2500' 2000' 1500' 2500' 4000' 4000' 4000' 5500'
Mt. Hood 7500' 6500' 7500' 6000' 4500' 4000' 4500' 7000'
Olympics Elevation
Monday Evening* 7000'
Monday Night* 6500'
Tuesday Morning* 5500'
Tuesday Afternoon* 5000'
Tuesday Evening 4500'
Tuesday Night 4500'
Wednesday Morning 3500'
Wednesday Afternoon 5500'
West North Elevation
Monday Evening* 6500'
Monday Night* 5500'
Tuesday Morning* 4000'
Tuesday Afternoon* 4000'
Tuesday Evening 3500'
Tuesday Night 3000'
Wednesday Morning 2500'
Wednesday Afternoon 4000'
West Central Elevation
Monday Evening* 6500'
Monday Night* 6000'
Tuesday Morning* 5000'
Tuesday Afternoon* 4000'
Tuesday Evening 3500'
Tuesday Night 3500'
Wednesday Morning 3000'
Wednesday Afternoon 4000'
West South Elevation
Monday Evening* 6500'
Monday Night* 6500'
Tuesday Morning* 6000'
Tuesday Afternoon* 5000'
Tuesday Evening 4000'
Tuesday Night 3500'
Wednesday Morning 3500'
Wednesday Afternoon 5000'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Monday Evening* 2500'
Monday Night* 2000'
Tuesday Morning* 2000'
Tuesday Afternoon* 2000'
Tuesday Evening 3000'
Tuesday Night 3500'
Wednesday Morning 3000'
Wednesday Afternoon 4500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Monday Evening* 2500'
Monday Night* 2000'
Tuesday Morning* 2500'
Tuesday Afternoon* 2500'
Tuesday Evening 3500'
Tuesday Night 3500'
Wednesday Morning 3000'
Wednesday Afternoon 4500'
East North Elevation
Monday Evening* 1500'
Monday Night* 500'
Tuesday Morning* 1000'
Tuesday Afternoon* 1000'
Tuesday Evening 2500'
Tuesday Night 3000'
Wednesday Morning 2500'
Wednesday Afternoon 4500'
East Central Elevation
Monday Evening* 2000'
Monday Night* 1500'
Tuesday Morning* 1000'
Tuesday Afternoon* 1000'
Tuesday Evening 2500'
Tuesday Night 3000'
Wednesday Morning 3500'
Wednesday Afternoon 4500'
East South Elevation
Monday Evening* 2500'
Monday Night* 2000'
Tuesday Morning* 1500'
Tuesday Afternoon* 2500'
Tuesday Evening 4000'
Tuesday Night 4000'
Wednesday Morning 4000'
Wednesday Afternoon 5500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Monday Evening* 7500'
Monday Night* 6500'
Tuesday Morning* 7500'
Tuesday Afternoon* 6000'
Tuesday Evening 4500'
Tuesday Night 4000'
Wednesday Morning 4500'
Wednesday Afternoon 7000'

Issued: 2:10 PM PST Monday, November 21, 2022

5000' Temperatures (°F)

Monday Night Tuesday
Max / Min Max / Min
Olympics 35 / 33 34 / 30
West North 33 / 31 32 / 30
West Central 32 / 32 33 / 31
West South 34 / 31 34 / 32
Stevens Pass 33 / 30 32 / 30
Snoqualmie Pass 32 / 30 32 / 30
East North 30 / 27 28 / 23
East Central 32 / 31 32 / 29
East South 34 / 32 35 / 33
Mt. Hood 36 / 34 37 / 35
Olympics 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Monday Night 35 / 33
Tuesday 34 / 30
West North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Monday Night 33 / 31
Tuesday 32 / 30
West Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Monday Night 32 / 32
Tuesday 33 / 31
West South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Monday Night 34 / 31
Tuesday 34 / 32
Stevens Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Monday Night 33 / 30
Tuesday 32 / 30
Snoqualmie Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Monday Night 32 / 30
Tuesday 32 / 30
East North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Monday Night 30 / 27
Tuesday 28 / 23
East Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Monday Night 32 / 31
Tuesday 32 / 29
East South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Monday Night 34 / 32
Tuesday 35 / 33
Mt. Hood 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Monday Night 36 / 34
Tuesday 37 / 35

Issued: 2:10 PM PST Monday, November 21, 2022

Ridgeline Winds (mph)

Monday Evening Monday Night Tuesday Morning Tuesday Afternoon
Olympics SW 5-15 SSW 15-25 SW 20-30 WSW 15-25
West North SSW 5-15 SSW 15-25 SSW 20-30 SSW 15-25
West Central SSW 5-15 SSW 5-15 SSW 15-25 SSW 15-25
West South SW 0-10 SW 5-15 SSW 10-20 WSW 15-25
Stevens Pass ESE 0-10 ESE 5-15 ESE 10-20 ESE 10-20
Snoqualmie Pass ESE 10-20 ESE 10-20 ESE 10-20 ESE 10-20
East North WSW 5-15 SW 10-20 SSW 10-20 SSW 5-15
East Central WSW 5-15 WSW 10-20 SW 15-25 SW 20-30
East South WSW 0-10 WSW 5-15 WSW 10-20 WSW 15-25
Mt. Hood SW 5-15 SW 10-20 SW 15-25 WSW 30-40
Olympics Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Monday Evening SW 5-15
Monday Night SSW 15-25
Tuesday Morning SW 20-30
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 15-25
West North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Monday Evening SSW 5-15
Monday Night SSW 15-25
Tuesday Morning SSW 20-30
Tuesday Afternoon SSW 15-25
West Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Monday Evening SSW 5-15
Monday Night SSW 5-15
Tuesday Morning SSW 15-25
Tuesday Afternoon SSW 15-25
West South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Monday Evening SW 0-10
Monday Night SW 5-15
Tuesday Morning SSW 10-20
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 15-25
Stevens Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Monday Evening ESE 0-10
Monday Night ESE 5-15
Tuesday Morning ESE 10-20
Tuesday Afternoon ESE 10-20
Snoqualmie Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Monday Evening ESE 10-20
Monday Night ESE 10-20
Tuesday Morning ESE 10-20
Tuesday Afternoon ESE 10-20
East North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Monday Evening WSW 5-15
Monday Night SW 10-20
Tuesday Morning SSW 10-20
Tuesday Afternoon SSW 5-15
East Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Monday Evening WSW 5-15
Monday Night WSW 10-20
Tuesday Morning SW 15-25
Tuesday Afternoon SW 20-30
East South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Monday Evening WSW 0-10
Monday Night WSW 5-15
Tuesday Morning WSW 10-20
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 15-25
Mt. Hood Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Monday Evening SW 5-15
Monday Night SW 10-20
Tuesday Morning SW 15-25
Tuesday Afternoon WSW 30-40

Issued: 2:10 PM PST Monday, November 21, 2022

Extended Weather Synopsis

Uncertainty lingers at the end of the week. Models suggest that the ridge may start to break down late Thursday night or Friday morning as a dissipating frontal system spreads precipitation from NW to SE across the region. Expect a break between systems with cooler temperatures on Saturday.

Extended Snow Level (ft)

Wednesday Night* Thursday * Thursday Night* Friday
West North 6000' 8500' 8000' 4500'
Snoqualmie Pass 6000' 9000' 7000' 7000'
Mt. Hood 10500' 11000' 12000' 11000'
West North Elevation
Wednesday Night* 6000'
Thursday * 8500'
Thursday Night* 8000'
Friday 4500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Night* 6000'
Thursday * 9000'
Thursday Night* 7000'
Friday 7000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Night* 10500'
Thursday * 11000'
Thursday Night* 12000'
Friday 11000'

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Nov 21, 2022

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.

The 5000’ temperature forecast does not imply a trend over the 12 hr period and only represents the max and min temperatures within a 12 hr period in the zone. The 6-hr snow level forecast, the forecast discussion, and weather forecast sections may add detail regarding temperature trends.

The snow level forecast represents the general snow level over a 6 hr time period. Freezing levels are forecast when precipitation is not expected.

*Easterly or offshore flow is highlighted with an asterisk when we expect relatively cool east winds in the major Cascade Passes. Easterly flow will often lead to temperature inversions and is a key variable for forecasting precipitation type in the Cascade Passes. Strong easterly flow events can affect terrain on a more regional scale.

Ridgeline winds are the average wind speed and direction over a 6 hr time period.

The wind forecast represents an elevation range instead of a single elevation slice. The elevation range overlaps with the near and above treeline elevation bands in the avalanche forecast and differs per zone.

Wind direction indicates the direction the wind originates or comes from on the 16-point compass rose.

Water Equivalent (WE) is the liquid water equivalent of all precipitation types; rain, snow, ice pellets, etc., forecast to the hundredth of an inch at specific locations. To use WE as a proxy for snowfall amounts, start with a snow to water ratio of 10:1 (10 inches of snow = 1 inch WE). Temperatures at or near freezing will generally have a lower ratio (heavy wet snow) and very cold temperatures can have a much higher ratio (dry fluffy snow).

The label LT, is shorthand for ‘less than’.