Issued: 1:59 PM PST Thursday, February 18, 2021
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis

Precipitation associated with a Pacific frontal system has spread over the area today. So far precipitation has been lighter north of the jet stream over Washington state with the jet pointed into Oregon. Precipitation should start to increase for all areas as the front pushes inland this evening, passing through the Cascades around 10 pm.  With a switch to westerlies in the Cascade Passes, we'll see a brief bump in snow levels to about 2500' around midnight. 

Showers will increase tonight with strong westerly ridgeline winds across the area.  A trailing trough will help invigorate shower activity through Friday morning; 4-10 inches of snow is likely tonight with closer to a foot possible near Mt. Hood. A convergence zone may form at times, especially Friday morning in the vicinity of the Mt Loop Hwy. The convergence zone is not expected to shift south to I-90. 

Showers will continue but ease in intensity on Friday as westerly flow weakens and with weak upper-level troughing overhead. A similar pattern of scattered showers should continue Friday night through Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, showers will transition to steadier precipitation over the Olympics, central and north Cascades as warm frontal precipitation associated with an atmospheric river begins to shift into the region.  

Weather Forecast

Olympics
West North
West Central
West South
Stevens Pass
Snoqualmie Pass
East North
East Central
East South
Mt. Hood
Use dropdown to select your zone
Thursday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. Strong ridgeline winds.
Friday Cloudy with light scattered showers.
Thursday Night Cloudy with moderate rain and snow showers. Strong ridgeline winds.
Friday Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate showers.
Thursday Night Cloudy with moderate rain and snow showers. Strong ridgeline winds.
Friday Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate showers.
Thursday Night Cloudy with moderate rain and snow showers. Strong ridgeline winds.
Friday Mostly cloudy with scattered light to occasionally moderate showers. Strong ridgeline winds decreasing in the afternoon.
Thursday Night Cloudy with moderate rain and snow showers. Strong ridgeline winds.
Friday Cloudy with scattered light to occasionally moderate showers. Strong ridgeline and Pass level westerly winds decreasing in the afternoon.
Thursday Night Cloudy with moderate rain and snow showers. Strong ridgeline winds.
Friday Cloudy with scattered light to occasionally moderate showers. Strong ridgeline and Pass level westerly winds decreasing in the afternoon.
Thursday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. Strong ridgeline winds.
Friday Cloudy with scattered light showers. Strong ridgeline winds decreasing in the afternoon.
Thursday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. Strong ridgeline winds.
Friday Mostly cloudy with scattered light showers. Strong ridgeline winds decreasing in the afternoon.
Thursday Night Cloudy with light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers. Strong ridgeline winds.
Friday Mostly cloudy with scattered light showers. Strong ridgeline winds decreasing in the afternoon.
Thursday Night Cloudy with moderate rain and snow showers. Strong ridgeline winds.
Friday Mostly cloudy with scattered light to occasionally moderate showers. Strong ridgeline winds decreasing in the afternoon.

Precipitation (in)

Thursday Night Friday Friday Night Saturday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge 0.50 LT 0.25 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area 0.75 0.25 - 0.50 0.25 LT 0.10
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass 0.75 -1.00 0.50 LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Stevens Pass 0.50 - 0.75 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Snoqualmie Pass 0.75 0.25 0.25 0.25
Crystal Mt 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.10 LT 0.25
Paradise 0.50 - 0.75 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 LT 0.25
White Pass 0.50 0.25 LT 0.10 LT 0.25
Washington Pass 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Mission Ridge LT 0.25 LT 0.10 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Tieton River - Darland Mt. 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Mt Hood Meadows 0.75 -1.00 LT 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Timberline 1.00 0.25 0.25 LT 0.25
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0.50
Friday LT 0.25
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0.75
Friday 0.25 - 0.50
Friday Night 0.25
Saturday LT 0.10
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0.75 -1.00
Friday 0.50
Friday Night LT 0.25
Saturday LT 0.25
Stevens Pass Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Friday 0.25
Friday Night LT 0.25
Saturday LT 0.25
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0.75
Friday 0.25
Friday Night 0.25
Saturday 0.25
Crystal Mt Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0.25
Friday LT 0.25
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.25
Paradise Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Friday 0.25 - 0.50
Friday Night LT 0.25
Saturday LT 0.25
White Pass Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0.50
Friday 0.25
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.25
Washington Pass Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Friday LT 0.25
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.10
Mission Ridge Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday LT 0.10
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.10
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Friday LT 0.25
Friday Night LT 0.25
Saturday LT 0.10
Tieton River - Darland Mt. Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Friday LT 0.10
Friday Night LT 0.10
Saturday LT 0.10
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 0.75 -1.00
Friday LT 0.25
Friday Night LT 0.25
Saturday LT 0.25
Timberline Precipitation (in)
Thursday Night 1.00
Friday 0.25
Friday Night 0.25
Saturday LT 0.25

Snow Level (ft)

Thursday Evening* Thursday Night Friday Morning Friday Afternoon Friday Evening Friday Night Saturday Morning Saturday Afternoon
Olympics 3500' 2000' 2000' 3000' 2000' 1500' 2000' 2500'
West North 2000' 1500' 2000' 2500' 2000' 1500' 1500' 2000'
West Central 2000' 2500' 2500' 2500' 2000' 1500' 1500' 2000'
West South 3000' 3000' 3000' 3000' 2000' 1500' 2000' 2000'
Stevens Pass 1500' 2500' 2500' 2500' 2000' 1500' 1500' 2000'
Snoqualmie Pass 2000' 2500' 2500' 2500' 2000' 1500' 1500' 2000'
East North 1000' 2000' 2000' 3000' 2000' 1000' 1500' 1500'
East Central 1500' 2500' 3000' 3000' 2000' 1500' 1500' 2000'
East South 2000' 2500' 3000' 3000' 2000' 1500' 1500' 2000'
Mt. Hood 4000' 3500' 3000' 3500' 2500' 2000' 2000' 2500'
Olympics Elevation
Thursday Evening* 3500'
Thursday Night 2000'
Friday Morning 2000'
Friday Afternoon 3000'
Friday Evening 2000'
Friday Night 1500'
Saturday Morning 2000'
Saturday Afternoon 2500'
West North Elevation
Thursday Evening* 2000'
Thursday Night 1500'
Friday Morning 2000'
Friday Afternoon 2500'
Friday Evening 2000'
Friday Night 1500'
Saturday Morning 1500'
Saturday Afternoon 2000'
West Central Elevation
Thursday Evening* 2000'
Thursday Night 2500'
Friday Morning 2500'
Friday Afternoon 2500'
Friday Evening 2000'
Friday Night 1500'
Saturday Morning 1500'
Saturday Afternoon 2000'
West South Elevation
Thursday Evening* 3000'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 3000'
Friday Afternoon 3000'
Friday Evening 2000'
Friday Night 1500'
Saturday Morning 2000'
Saturday Afternoon 2000'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening* 1500'
Thursday Night 2500'
Friday Morning 2500'
Friday Afternoon 2500'
Friday Evening 2000'
Friday Night 1500'
Saturday Morning 1500'
Saturday Afternoon 2000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening* 2000'
Thursday Night 2500'
Friday Morning 2500'
Friday Afternoon 2500'
Friday Evening 2000'
Friday Night 1500'
Saturday Morning 1500'
Saturday Afternoon 2000'
East North Elevation
Thursday Evening* 1000'
Thursday Night 2000'
Friday Morning 2000'
Friday Afternoon 3000'
Friday Evening 2000'
Friday Night 1000'
Saturday Morning 1500'
Saturday Afternoon 1500'
East Central Elevation
Thursday Evening* 1500'
Thursday Night 2500'
Friday Morning 3000'
Friday Afternoon 3000'
Friday Evening 2000'
Friday Night 1500'
Saturday Morning 1500'
Saturday Afternoon 2000'
East South Elevation
Thursday Evening* 2000'
Thursday Night 2500'
Friday Morning 3000'
Friday Afternoon 3000'
Friday Evening 2000'
Friday Night 1500'
Saturday Morning 1500'
Saturday Afternoon 2000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Evening* 4000'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 3000'
Friday Afternoon 3500'
Friday Evening 2500'
Friday Night 2000'
Saturday Morning 2000'
Saturday Afternoon 2500'

5000' Temperatures (°F)

Thursday Night Friday
Max / Min Max / Min
Olympics 28 / 24 26 / 22
West North 26 / 24 25 / 22
West Central 26 / 22 25 / 23
West South 28 / 25 27 / 24
Stevens Pass 27 / 22 26 / 23
Snoqualmie Pass 27 / 22 25 / 23
East North 23 / 19 26 / 21
East Central 26 / 21 26 / 22
East South 27 / 24 28 / 22
Mt. Hood 30 / 28 29 / 24
Olympics 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 28 / 24
Friday 26 / 22
West North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 26 / 24
Friday 25 / 22
West Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 26 / 22
Friday 25 / 23
West South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 28 / 25
Friday 27 / 24
Stevens Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 27 / 22
Friday 26 / 23
Snoqualmie Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 27 / 22
Friday 25 / 23
East North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 23 / 19
Friday 26 / 21
East Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 26 / 21
Friday 26 / 22
East South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 27 / 24
Friday 28 / 22
Mt. Hood 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Thursday Night 30 / 28
Friday 29 / 24

Ridgeline Winds (mph)

Thursday Evening Thursday Night Friday Morning Friday Afternoon
Olympics W 15-25 W 20-30 W 15-25 SW 10-20
West North S 15-25 W 15-25 WSW 10-20 SW 5-15
West Central S 15-25 W 20-30 W 15-25 WSW 10-20
West South WSW 20-30 W 20-30 W 20-30 SW 10-20
Stevens Pass SSE 10-20 W 20-30 WSW 15-25 WSW 10-20
Snoqualmie Pass SSE 10-20 WSW 25-35 WSW 20-30 WSW 15-25
East North SSW 15-25 W 20-30 W 15-25 W 10-20
East Central S 15-25 W 30-40 W 25-35 W 15-25
East South S 15-25 W 20-30 W 20-30 W 10-20
Mt. Hood W 20-30 WSW 25-35 W 25-35 W 15-25
Olympics Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening W 15-25
Thursday Night W 20-30
Friday Morning W 15-25
Friday Afternoon SW 10-20
West North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening S 15-25
Thursday Night W 15-25
Friday Morning WSW 10-20
Friday Afternoon SW 5-15
West Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening S 15-25
Thursday Night W 20-30
Friday Morning W 15-25
Friday Afternoon WSW 10-20
West South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening WSW 20-30
Thursday Night W 20-30
Friday Morning W 20-30
Friday Afternoon SW 10-20
Stevens Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening SSE 10-20
Thursday Night W 20-30
Friday Morning WSW 15-25
Friday Afternoon WSW 10-20
Snoqualmie Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening SSE 10-20
Thursday Night WSW 25-35
Friday Morning WSW 20-30
Friday Afternoon WSW 15-25
East North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening SSW 15-25
Thursday Night W 20-30
Friday Morning W 15-25
Friday Afternoon W 10-20
East Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening S 15-25
Thursday Night W 30-40
Friday Morning W 25-35
Friday Afternoon W 15-25
East South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening S 15-25
Thursday Night W 20-30
Friday Morning W 20-30
Friday Afternoon W 10-20
Mt. Hood Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Thursday Evening W 20-30
Thursday Night WSW 25-35
Friday Morning W 25-35
Friday Afternoon W 15-25

Extended Weather Synopsis

We'll be on the warm side of the jet stream to start off this event, with the jet aimed into central British Columbia on Saturday night. Forecast models are in good agreement that a more significant wave of warm frontal moisture will drape over the area, stretching as far south as Mt Hood on Sunday. Snow levels should begin their slow but steady climb late Saturday night through Monday, likely settling somewhere around 5000-6000' on Monday. Several inches of water will likely accumulate over this period, heaviest over the west slopes of the Washington Cascades. Ensemble forecasts suggest that between Saturday night and Monday we are talking about 2-5 inches of water smeared across the PNW mountains.  

Extended Snow Level (ft)

Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night Monday
West North 2000' 4000' 4500' 5000'
Snoqualmie Pass 2000' 4500' 5000' 5500'
Mt. Hood 2000' 4500' 5500' 6000'
West North Elevation
Saturday Night 2000'
Sunday 4000'
Sunday Night 4500'
Monday 5000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Saturday Night 2000'
Sunday 4500'
Sunday Night 5000'
Monday 5500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Saturday Night 2000'
Sunday 4500'
Sunday Night 5500'
Monday 6000'

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Feb 18, 2021

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.

The 5000’ temperature forecast does not imply a trend over the 12 hr period and only represents the max and min temperatures within a 12 hr period in the zone. The 6-hr snow level forecast, the forecast discussion, and weather forecast sections may add detail regarding temperature trends.

The snow level forecast represents the general snow level over a 6 hr time period. Freezing levels are forecast when precipitation is not expected.

*Easterly or offshore flow is highlighted with an asterisk when we expect relatively cool east winds in the major Cascade Passes. Easterly flow will often lead to temperature inversions and is a key variable for forecasting precipitation type in the Cascade Passes. Strong easterly flow events can affect terrain on a more regional scale.

Ridgeline winds are the average wind speed and direction over a 6 hr time period.

The wind forecast represents an elevation range instead of a single elevation slice. The elevation range overlaps with the near and above treeline elevation bands in the avalanche forecast and differs per zone.

Wind direction indicates the direction the wind originates or comes from on the 16-point compass rose.

Water Equivalent (WE) is the liquid water equivalent of all precipitation types; rain, snow, ice pellets, etc., forecast to the hundredth of an inch at specific locations. To use WE as a proxy for snowfall amounts, start with a snow to water ratio of 10:1 (10 inches of snow = 1 inch WE). Temperatures at or near freezing will generally have a lower ratio (heavy wet snow) and very cold temperatures can have a much higher ratio (dry fluffy snow).

The label LT, is shorthand for ‘less than’.