Issued: 2:00 PM PST Wednesday, December 16, 2020
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis

Radar shows a precipitation shield lifting SE over the area this afternoon. An occluded front associated with a deepening low pressure center off Vancouver Island will push through the region this evening. The heaviest precipitation is expected tonight prior to and during the frontal passage with a fair amount of moisture spread along the east slopes of the Cascades with this storm.  Snow levels will be highest over the far south Washington Cascades until the front passes through this evening.  

Even in areas further north that don't see much oscillation in snow levels, this is not a particularly cold storm (nor have we had one in awhile).  Easterly offshore flow through the Passes will nudge snow levels down to 3000' but snow levels will bump right back up to 3500'+ following the front late this evening with a switch to westerly flow. The surface low pressure system will pass inland early Thursday morning. There's some question as to how this surface feature tracks, which could redirect a heavier band of precipitation and stronger winds into the central Cascades. Following the surface low, the trailing upper level trough will pass inland Thursday morning as well, shifting the flow aloft to the NW.  

With NW flow, showers should pile up an additional 4-10 inches of snow along the west slopes of the Cascades and Mt Hood, with lower amounts along the east slopes of the Cascades during the daylight hours. There will be brisk post-frontal westerly winds as well.  Snow levels will hang in the 3500-4000' range throughout the region.  

Weather Forecast

Olympics
West North
West Central
West South
Stevens Pass
Snoqualmie Pass
East North
East Central
East South
Mt. Hood
Use dropdown to select your zone
Wednesday Night Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow.
Thursday Scattered light rain and snow showers with sunbreaks in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Moderate to occasionally heavy rain and snow.
Thursday Light to moderate rain and snow showers in the morning becoming scattered in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Moderate to occasionally heavy rain and snow.
Thursday Moderate rain and snow showers decreasing during the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Light to moderate rain and snow, heavier at Paradise.
Thursday Light to moderate rain and snow showers decreasing during the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Moderate rain and snow. Moderate east winds at Pass level becoming west after midnight.
Thursday Light to moderate rain and snow showers decreasing during the afternoon. Moderate west winds at Pass level.
Wednesday Night Moderate rain and snow. Moderate east winds at Pass level becoming west after midnight.
Thursday Moderate rain and snow showers decreasing during the afternoon. Moderate west winds at Pass level.
Wednesday Night Light to moderate rain and snow.
Thursday Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers in the morning becoming scattered showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Light to moderate rain and snow.
Thursday Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers in the morning becoming decreasing in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Light to moderate rain and snow becoming showers after midnight.
Thursday Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers in the morning becoming scattered showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Moderate rain and snow becoming showers overnight.
Thursday Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow showers in the morning becoming scattered showers in the afternoon.

Precipitation (in)

Wednesday Night Thursday Thursday Night Friday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge 0.50 0.25 LT 0.10 0.50 - 0.75
Mt Baker Ski Area 1.00 - 1.50 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 1.00
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass 1.00 0.50 - 0.75 LT 0.25 0.75 -1.00
Stevens Pass 0.50 - 0.75 0.50 - 0.75 LT 0.25 0.50
Snoqualmie Pass 0.75 -1.00 0.75 -1.00 LT 0.25 0.50
Crystal Mt 0.50 0.25 LT 0.10 0.25 - 0.50
Paradise 0.75 -1.00 0.75 0.25 0.50
White Pass 0.25 - 0.50 0.50 LT 0.25 0.25 - 0.50
Washington Pass 0.50 - 0.75 LT 0.25 LT 0.10 0.25
Mission Ridge 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 0 LT 0.10
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head 0.50 - 0.75 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 0.25
Tieton River - Darland Mt. 0.50 0.25 LT 0.10 LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows 0.75 -1.00 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10 LT 0.25
Timberline 1.00 0.50 LT 0.25 LT 0.25
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.50
Thursday 0.25
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Friday 0.50 - 0.75
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 1.00 - 1.50
Thursday 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday 1.00
Mt. Loop - Barlow Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 1.00
Thursday 0.50 - 0.75
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday 0.75 -1.00
Stevens Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Thursday 0.50 - 0.75
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday 0.50
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.75 -1.00
Thursday 0.75 -1.00
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday 0.50
Crystal Mt Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.50
Thursday 0.25
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Friday 0.25 - 0.50
Paradise Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.75 -1.00
Thursday 0.75
Thursday Night 0.25
Friday 0.50
White Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday 0.50
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday 0.25 - 0.50
Washington Pass Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Thursday LT 0.25
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Friday 0.25
Mission Ridge Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday LT 0.25
Thursday Night 0
Friday LT 0.10
Salmon la Sac - Gallagher Head Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Thursday 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday 0.25
Tieton River - Darland Mt. Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.50
Thursday 0.25
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Friday LT 0.25
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 0.75 -1.00
Thursday 0.25 - 0.50
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Friday LT 0.25
Timberline Precipitation (in)
Wednesday Night 1.00
Thursday 0.50
Thursday Night LT 0.25
Friday LT 0.25

Snow Level (ft)

Wednesday Evening* Wednesday Night Thursday Morning Thursday Afternoon Thursday Evening Thursday Night Friday Morning Friday Afternoon*
Olympics 5000' 3500' 4000' 4000' 3500' 4000' 4000' 4500'
West North 3500' 3500' 3500' 3500' 3000' 3000' 3500' 3500'
West Central 3500' 3500' 3500' 3500' 3000' 3000' 3500' 4000'
West South 4500' 3500' 3500' 4000' 3500' 3000' 3500' 4000'
Stevens Pass 3500' 3500' 3000' 3500' 3000' 3000' 3500' 3500'
Snoqualmie Pass 3500' 3500' 3000' 3500' 3000' 3000' 3500' 3500'
East North 2500' 2500' 3000' 3500' 2500' 2500' 3000' 3500'
East Central 3000' 2500' 3500' 4000' 3000' 3000' 3500' 3500'
East South 4000' 3500' 3500' 4000' 3000' 3000' 4000' 4000'
Mt. Hood 5500' 4000' 3500' 4000' 3500' 3500' 4500' 4500'
Olympics Elevation
Wednesday Evening* 5000'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 4000'
Thursday Afternoon 4000'
Thursday Evening 3500'
Thursday Night 4000'
Friday Morning 4000'
Friday Afternoon* 4500'
West North Elevation
Wednesday Evening* 3500'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 3500'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 3500'
Friday Afternoon* 3500'
West Central Elevation
Wednesday Evening* 3500'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 3500'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 3500'
Friday Afternoon* 4000'
West South Elevation
Wednesday Evening* 4500'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 4000'
Thursday Evening 3500'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 3500'
Friday Afternoon* 4000'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening* 3500'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3000'
Thursday Afternoon 3500'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 3500'
Friday Afternoon* 3500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening* 3500'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3000'
Thursday Afternoon 3500'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 3500'
Friday Afternoon* 3500'
East North Elevation
Wednesday Evening* 2500'
Wednesday Night 2500'
Thursday Morning 3000'
Thursday Afternoon 3500'
Thursday Evening 2500'
Thursday Night 2500'
Friday Morning 3000'
Friday Afternoon* 3500'
East Central Elevation
Wednesday Evening* 3000'
Wednesday Night 2500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 4000'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 3500'
Friday Afternoon* 3500'
East South Elevation
Wednesday Evening* 4000'
Wednesday Night 3500'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 4000'
Thursday Evening 3000'
Thursday Night 3000'
Friday Morning 4000'
Friday Afternoon* 4000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Evening* 5500'
Wednesday Night 4000'
Thursday Morning 3500'
Thursday Afternoon 4000'
Thursday Evening 3500'
Thursday Night 3500'
Friday Morning 4500'
Friday Afternoon* 4500'

5000' Temperatures (°F)

Wednesday Night Thursday
Max / Min Max / Min
Olympics 33 / 25 27 / 25
West North 30 / 26 27 / 25
West Central 30 / 25 27 / 25
West South 32 / 26 28 / 25
Stevens Pass 28 / 25 27 / 25
Snoqualmie Pass 28 / 25 28 / 25
East North 25 / 22 29 / 23
East Central 28 / 25 29 / 25
East South 30 / 23 29 / 24
Mt. Hood 35 / 27 28 / 24
Olympics 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 33 / 25
Thursday 27 / 25
West North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 30 / 26
Thursday 27 / 25
West Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 30 / 25
Thursday 27 / 25
West South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 32 / 26
Thursday 28 / 25
Stevens Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 28 / 25
Thursday 27 / 25
Snoqualmie Pass 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 28 / 25
Thursday 28 / 25
East North 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 25 / 22
Thursday 29 / 23
East Central 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 28 / 25
Thursday 29 / 25
East South 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 30 / 23
Thursday 29 / 24
Mt. Hood 5000' Temperature Forecast
(Max / Min)
Wednesday Night 35 / 27
Thursday 28 / 24

Ridgeline Winds (mph)

Wednesday Evening Wednesday Night Thursday Morning Thursday Afternoon
Olympics SW 20-30 SW 20-30 NW 10-20 W 10-20
West North S 20-30 SSW 15-25 SW 10-20 W 5-15
West Central SSE 20-30 SW 20-30 WSW 15-25 WNW 15-25
West South S 20-30 WSW 20-30 W 25-35 W 20-30
Stevens Pass SSE 10-20 WSW 20-30 WSW 20-30 WNW 15-25
Snoqualmie Pass SE 10-20 WSW 20-30 W 25-35 WNW 20-30
East North SE 15-25 SW 15-25 WSW 15-25 W 10-20
East Central SE 15-25 WSW 25-35 W 25-35 WNW 20-30
East South SW 15-25 W 20-30 W 20-30 WNW 20-30
Mt. Hood WSW 25-35 W 25-35 W 30-40 W 35-50
Olympics Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SW 20-30
Wednesday Night SW 20-30
Thursday Morning NW 10-20
Thursday Afternoon W 10-20
West North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening S 20-30
Wednesday Night SSW 15-25
Thursday Morning SW 10-20
Thursday Afternoon W 5-15
West Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SSE 20-30
Wednesday Night SW 20-30
Thursday Morning WSW 15-25
Thursday Afternoon WNW 15-25
West South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening S 20-30
Wednesday Night WSW 20-30
Thursday Morning W 25-35
Thursday Afternoon W 20-30
Stevens Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SSE 10-20
Wednesday Night WSW 20-30
Thursday Morning WSW 20-30
Thursday Afternoon WNW 15-25
Snoqualmie Pass Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SE 10-20
Wednesday Night WSW 20-30
Thursday Morning W 25-35
Thursday Afternoon WNW 20-30
East North Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SE 15-25
Wednesday Night SW 15-25
Thursday Morning WSW 15-25
Thursday Afternoon W 10-20
East Central Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SE 15-25
Wednesday Night WSW 25-35
Thursday Morning W 25-35
Thursday Afternoon WNW 20-30
East South Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening SW 15-25
Wednesday Night W 20-30
Thursday Morning W 20-30
Thursday Afternoon WNW 20-30
Mt. Hood Ridgeline Winds (mph)
Wednesday Evening WSW 25-35
Wednesday Night W 25-35
Thursday Morning W 30-40
Thursday Afternoon W 35-50

Extended Weather Synopsis

The extended promises to be a soggy mess crescendoing with an atmospheric river over the weekend. The next system arrives on Friday with warm frontal moisture afflicting the Olympics and north Cascades during the day before the front pushes through late Friday afternoon and night. The aforementioned atmospheric river will likely peak on Saturday night in both precipitation totals (several inches of water) and snow levels.  There's still some hope for a slightly cooler outcome, but right now this looks more like a river flooding event than a snow maker. 

Extended Snow Level (ft)

Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
West North 3000' 4000' 7000' 4000'
Snoqualmie Pass 3000' 5500' 7500' 5000'
Mt. Hood 4000' 6500' 8000' 6000'
West North Elevation
Friday Night 3000'
Saturday 4000'
Saturday Night 7000'
Sunday 4000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Night 3000'
Saturday 5500'
Saturday Night 7500'
Sunday 5000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Night 4000'
Saturday 6500'
Saturday Night 8000'
Sunday 6000'

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Precipitation I Snow Level I 5000' Temps I Ridgeline Winds I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Dec 16, 2020

The NWAC program is administered by the USDA-Forest Service and operates from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle. NWAC services are made possible by important collaboration and support from a wide variety of federal, state and private cooperators.

The 5000’ temperature forecast does not imply a trend over the 12 hr period and only represents the max and min temperatures within a 12 hr period in the zone. The 6-hr snow level forecast, the forecast discussion, and weather forecast sections may add detail regarding temperature trends.

The snow level forecast represents the general snow level over a 6 hr time period. Freezing levels are forecast when precipitation is not expected.

*Easterly or offshore flow is highlighted with an asterisk when we expect relatively cool east winds in the major Cascade Passes. Easterly flow will often lead to temperature inversions and is a key variable for forecasting precipitation type in the Cascade Passes. Strong easterly flow events can affect terrain on a more regional scale.

Ridgeline winds are the average wind speed and direction over a 6 hr time period.

The wind forecast represents an elevation range instead of a single elevation slice. The elevation range overlaps with the near and above treeline elevation bands in the avalanche forecast and differs per zone.

Wind direction indicates the direction the wind originates or comes from on the 16-point compass rose.

Water Equivalent (WE) is the liquid water equivalent of all precipitation types; rain, snow, ice pellets, etc., forecast to the hundredth of an inch at specific locations. To use WE as a proxy for snowfall amounts, start with a snow to water ratio of 10:1 (10 inches of snow = 1 inch WE). Temperatures at or near freezing will generally have a lower ratio (heavy wet snow) and very cold temperatures can have a much higher ratio (dry fluffy snow).

The label LT, is shorthand for ‘less than’.