Issued: 1:34 PM PST Wednesday, December 11, 2019
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Wednesday night through Friday

A winter storm is on our doorstep early this afternoon.  A Pacific frontal band will spread increasing precipitation over the area later this afternoon and tonight. The front will split and weaken as in moves inland; the parent low is in the Gulf of Alaska, while a consolidated westerly jet is aimed into northern California/southern Oregon. This will translate into heavier precipitation for the volcanoes versus the Cascade Passes tonight.  

The front will pass through the Cascades in the wee morning hours.  This will flip the Pass level flow from easterly to westerly, allowing an already marginal snow-maker for Snoqualmie Pass to turn to rain at Pass level (3000').  Post frontal showers in westerly flow will pile fresh accumulations along the west slopes of the Olympics and Cascades above 3500-4000 ft Thursday. A trailing shortwave should invigorate shower coverage and intensity Thursday afternoon.

Snow levels will drop below 3000'  Thursday evening as showers continue in westerly flow. The westerly flow will be strong Thursday night, look for strong west winds near ridgetops along the east slopes of the Cascades. Weak ridging over the area on Friday will lead to a decrease in showers and alpine winds.

Through Friday morning, this pattern should drop about 1-3 feet of snow along the west slopes of the Cascades, Olympics and Mt. Hood and 6-18 inches along the east slopes of the Cascades. 

Weather Forecast

Hurricane Ridge
Wednesday Night Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow. Windy.
Mt. Baker
Wednesday Night Moderate rain and snow. Windy.
Washington Pass and Leavenworth
Wednesday Night Light rain and snow, occasionally becoming moderate after midnight. Alpine winds increasing late tonight.
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass
Wednesday Night Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow. Light to moderate east winds in the Passes becoming west late tonight. Warming trend late tonight.
Mt. Rainier, Crystal and White Pass
Wednesday Night Light to occasionally moderate rain and snow, heaviest Paradise area. Windy.
Mt. Hood
Wednesday Night Moderate rain and snow developing this evening. Windy.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Wednesday Evening Snow Level * 5000' 3500' 1000' 1500' 2000' 3000' 5000' 6000'
Wednesday Night Snow Level * 4500' 4000' 2500' 2500' 2500' 4000' 5000' 5000'
Thursday Morning Snow Level 3500' 3500' 3500' 3500' 3500' 3500' 4000' 4500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level 3500' 3500' 3500' 3500' 3500' 3500' 4000' 4500'
Thursday Evening Snow Level 3500' 3000' 3500' 4000' 3000' 3000' 3000' 3500'
Thursday Night Snow Level 3000' 3000' 2000' 3000' 3000' 3000' 3000' 3500'
Friday Morning Snow Level 2500' 2500' 2000' 2000' 2000' 2500' 2500' 3500'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
4500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
3000'
Friday Morning Snow Level
2500'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
3500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
3000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
3000'
Friday Morning Snow Level
2500'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
Washington Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
1000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
2000'
Friday Morning Snow Level
2000'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
Leavenworth Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
1500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
4000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
3000'
Friday Morning Snow Level
2000'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
2000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
2500'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
3000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
3000'
Friday Morning Snow Level
2000'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
2000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
3000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
4000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
3000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
3000'
Friday Morning Snow Level
2500'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
4000'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
4000'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
3000'
Thursday Night Snow Level
3000'
Friday Morning Snow Level
2500'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
2500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Evening Snow Level
6000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Wednesday Night Snow Level
5000'
(Easterly Flow *)
Thursday Morning Snow Level
4500'
Thursday Afternoon Snow Level
4500'
Thursday Evening Snow Level
3500'
Thursday Night Snow Level
3500'
Friday Morning Snow Level
3500'
Friday Afternoon Snow Level
3500'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Wednesday Night Friday Friday Night Friday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge 0.50 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25 LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area 1.00 - 1.50 0.50 - 0.75 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.25
Washington Pass 0.50 0.25 - 0.50 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Leavenworth 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Stevens Pass 0.50 0.50 - 0.75 0.50 LT 0.25
Snoqualmie Pass 0.75 0.50 - 0.75 0.50 LT 0.25
Mission Ridge 0.25 LT 0.25 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Crystal Mt 0.75 0.75 0.25 LT 0.10
Paradise 1.00 1.00 - 1.50 0.75 LT 0.25
White Pass 0.50 - 0.75 0.50 - 0.75 0.50 LT 0.10
Mt Hood Meadows 0.75 -1.00 0.75 0.50 LT 0.25
1.00 0.75 -1.00 0.50 - 0.75 LT 0.25
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.50
Friday 0.25 - 0.50
Friday Night LT 0.25
Friday LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 1.00 - 1.50
Friday 0.50 - 0.75
Friday Night 0.25 - 0.50
Friday LT 0.25
Washington Pass Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.50
Friday 0.25 - 0.50
Friday Night LT 0.10
Friday LT 0.10
Leavenworth Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.25
Friday LT 0.25
Friday Night LT 0.10
Friday LT 0.10
Stevens Pass Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.50
Friday 0.50 - 0.75
Friday Night 0.50
Friday LT 0.25
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.75
Friday 0.50 - 0.75
Friday Night 0.50
Friday LT 0.25
Mission Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.25
Friday LT 0.25
Friday Night LT 0.10
Friday LT 0.10
Crystal Mt Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.75
Friday 0.75
Friday Night 0.25
Friday LT 0.10
Paradise Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 1.00
Friday 1.00 - 1.50
Friday Night 0.75
Friday LT 0.25
White Pass Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Friday 0.50 - 0.75
Friday Night 0.50
Friday LT 0.10
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 0.75 -1.00
Friday 0.75
Friday Night 0.50
Friday LT 0.25
Timberline Precipitation Forecast
Wednesday Night 1.00
Friday 0.75 -1.00
Friday Night 0.50 - 0.75
Friday LT 0.25

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Wednesday Evening SW 25 - 35 SSW 20 - 30 SE 15 - 25 S 15 - 25 SW 20 - 30
Wednesday Night SW 20 - 30 SW 20 - 30 WSW 20 - 30 SW 20 - 30 WSW 30 - 40
Thursday Morning SW 10 - 20 SSW 10 - 20 WSW 20 - 30 SW 10 - 20 SW 20 - 30
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Wednesday Evening SW 25 - 35
Wednesday Night SW 20 - 30
Thursday Morning SW 10 - 20
Thursday Afternoon WSW 15 - 25
Mt. Baker Elevation
Wednesday Evening SSW 20 - 30
Wednesday Night SW 20 - 30
Thursday Morning SSW 10 - 20
Thursday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Wednesday Evening SE 15 - 25
Wednesday Night WSW 20 - 30
Thursday Morning WSW 20 - 30
Thursday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Wednesday Evening S 15 - 25
Wednesday Night SW 20 - 30
Thursday Morning SW 10 - 20
Thursday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Mt. Hood Elevation
Wednesday Evening SW 20 - 30
Wednesday Night WSW 30 - 40
Thursday Morning SW 20 - 30
Thursday Afternoon WSW 35 - 45
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening SW 25 - 35
Wednesday Night SW 20 - 30
Thursday Morning SW 10 - 20
Thursday Afternoon WSW 15 - 25
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening SSW 20 - 30
Wednesday Night SW 20 - 30
Thursday Morning SSW 10 - 20
Thursday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening SE 15 - 25
Wednesday Night WSW 20 - 30
Thursday Morning WSW 20 - 30
Thursday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening S 15 - 25
Wednesday Night SW 20 - 30
Thursday Morning SW 10 - 20
Thursday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening SW 20 - 30
Wednesday Night WSW 30 - 40
Thursday Morning SW 20 - 30
Thursday Afternoon WSW 35 - 45

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Wednesday Evening SW 30 - 40 SW 25 - 35 SW 30 - 40 SW 35 - 45 SW 35 - 45
Wednesday Night SW 35 - 45 WSW 30 - 40 WSW 45 - 55 WSW 40 - 50 WSW 50 - 60
Thursday Morning WSW 30 - 40 WSW 40 - 50 W 40 - 50 WSW 35 - 45 W 40 - 50
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening SW 30 - 40
Wednesday Night SW 35 - 45
Thursday Morning WSW 30 - 40
Thursday Afternoon SW 20 - 30
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening SW 25 - 35
Wednesday Night WSW 30 - 40
Thursday Morning WSW 40 - 50
Thursday Afternoon SW 15 - 25
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening SW 30 - 40
Wednesday Night WSW 45 - 55
Thursday Morning W 40 - 50
Thursday Afternoon WSW 40 - 50
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening SW 35 - 45
Wednesday Night WSW 40 - 50
Thursday Morning WSW 35 - 45
Thursday Afternoon WSW 40 - 50
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Wednesday Evening SW 35 - 45
Wednesday Night WSW 50 - 60
Thursday Morning W 40 - 50
Thursday Afternoon WSW 50 - 60

Extended Weather Synopsis for Friday night through Friday

We'll be in a benign and cool weather pattern Saturday as a low-pressure system dives south off the Oregon coast. There should be a fair amount of cloud cover and low freezing levels, but no impactful weather.  The majority of forecast models keep the precipitation to our south on Saturday, but there is a chance that the low-pressure system will glance the Mt. Hood area.

 On Sunday, the GFS/Canadian models show we are dry with NW flow aloft and a frontal system offshore. The European model suggests warm frontal moisture will push through the area before lifting north on Monday. Stay tuned as weekend forecast shakes out.  

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Friday Night Snow Level 1000' - 2000' 1000' - 2000' 1000' - 2000'
Saturday Freezing Level 1500' - 2500' 1500' - 2500' 2500' - 3500'
Saturday Night Freezing Level 0' - 1000' 500' - 1500' 1500' - 2500'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Friday Night Snow Level
1000' - 2000'
Saturday Freezing Level
1500' - 2500'
Saturday Night Freezing Level
0' - 1000'
Sunday Freezing Level
0' - 1000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Friday Night Snow Level
1000' - 2000'
Saturday Freezing Level
1500' - 2500'
Saturday Night Freezing Level
500' - 1500'
Sunday Freezing Level
500' - 1500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Friday Night Snow Level
1000' - 2000'
Saturday Freezing Level
2500' - 3500'
Saturday Night Freezing Level
1500' - 2500'
Sunday Freezing Level
2000' - 3000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Dec 10, 2019

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