Issued: 2:19 PM PDT Thursday, March 28, 2019
by Dennis D'Amico

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Weather Synopsis for Thursday night through Sunday

The Pacific Northwest sits in the middle of split upper level flow with high pressure anchored over British Columbia and a closed low off the Oregon coast and the storm track passing far to our north or south. In this pattern, marginal atmospheric instability should lead to isolated to scattered afternoon mountain showers over the next several days.

Forecast models diverge on how much influence the closed low off the coast vs. higher pressure to our north will exert over the forecast area. Areas closer to the low including the south Washington Cascades and Mt. Hood seem like a better bet for showers with colder air aloft translating into more instability.  A fair bit of high and mid clouds even as afternoon cumulus wane will make it hard to pin out a truly clear period tonight. On Saturday, the closed low will weaken and become an open trough passing through the Cascades. The result will be the same with an increasing chance of mountain showers in the afternoon although the air mass does not look as cold aloft or unstable as previous days. Relatively light winds should be seen over the next several days in this spring-time pattern.  

Despite precipitation forecast in the form of showers, freezing levels will be indicated since precipitation amounts are expected to be light. For areas that do see afternoon showers, snow levels will fall roughly 1000 ft below the forecasted freezing levels. 

Weather Forecast

Hurricane Ridge
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the evening becoming partly to mostly clear overnight.
Mt. Baker
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the evening becoming partly to mostly clear overnight.
Washington Pass and Leavenworth
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the evening becoming partly to mostly clear overnight.
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the evening becoming partly to mostly clear overnight. Light east wind in the Passes.
Mt. Rainier, Crystal and White Pass
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the evening becoming partly to mostly clear overnight.
Mt. Hood
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening becoming partly cloudy overnight.

Snow/Freezing Level (ft)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Washington Pass Leavenworth Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier, Crystal & White Pass Mt. Hood
Thursday Evening Freezing Level 5000' 5000' 4500' 4500' 5000' 5000' 5000' 5000'
Thursday Night Freezing Level 5000' 5000' 4500' 4500' 5000' 5000' 5000' 5000'
Friday Morning Freezing Level 5000' 5000' 4500' 4500' 5000' 5000' 5000' 5000'
Friday Afternoon Freezing Level 6000' 6500' 6500' 6500' 6000' 6000' 6000' 6000'
Friday Evening Freezing Level 5500' 5500' 5500' 5500' 5500' 5500' 5500' 5500'
Friday Night Freezing Level 5000' 5000' 4500' 4500' 5000' 5000' 5000' 5000'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level 5000' 5000' 5000' 5000' 5000' 5000' 5000' 5000'
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Thursday Evening Freezing Level
5000'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
5000'
Friday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Friday Afternoon Freezing Level
6000'
Friday Evening Freezing Level
5500'
Friday Night Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Afternoon Freezing Level
6000'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Thursday Evening Freezing Level
5000'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
5000'
Friday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Friday Afternoon Freezing Level
6500'
Friday Evening Freezing Level
5500'
Friday Night Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Afternoon Freezing Level
6500'
Washington Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening Freezing Level
4500'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
4500'
Friday Morning Freezing Level
4500'
Friday Afternoon Freezing Level
6500'
Friday Evening Freezing Level
5500'
Friday Night Freezing Level
4500'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Afternoon Freezing Level
6500'
Leavenworth Elevation
Thursday Evening Freezing Level
4500'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
4500'
Friday Morning Freezing Level
4500'
Friday Afternoon Freezing Level
6500'
Friday Evening Freezing Level
5500'
Friday Night Freezing Level
4500'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Afternoon Freezing Level
6500'
Stevens Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening Freezing Level
5000'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
5000'
Friday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Friday Afternoon Freezing Level
6000'
Friday Evening Freezing Level
5500'
Friday Night Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Afternoon Freezing Level
6000'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening Freezing Level
5000'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
5000'
Friday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Friday Afternoon Freezing Level
6000'
Friday Evening Freezing Level
5500'
Friday Night Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Afternoon Freezing Level
6000'
Mt. Rainier & Crystal Elevation
Thursday Evening Freezing Level
5000'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
5000'
Friday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Friday Afternoon Freezing Level
6000'
Friday Evening Freezing Level
5500'
Friday Night Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Afternoon Freezing Level
6000'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Evening Freezing Level
5000'
Thursday Night Freezing Level
5000'
Friday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Friday Afternoon Freezing Level
6000'
Friday Evening Freezing Level
5500'
Friday Night Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Morning Freezing Level
5000'
Saturday Afternoon Freezing Level
6000'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Thursday Night Sunday Sunday Night Sunday
4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm 4 pm - 4 am 4 am - 4 pm
Hurricane Ridge 0 LT 0.10 0 LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area 0 LT 0.10 0 LT 0.10
Washington Pass 0 LT 0.10 0 LT 0.10
Leavenworth 0 0 0 LT 0.10
Stevens Pass 0 LT 0.10 0 LT 0.10
Snoqualmie Pass 0 LT 0.10 0 LT 0.10
Mission Ridge 0 0 0 LT 0.10
Crystal Mt 0 LT 0.10 0 LT 0.10
Paradise 0 LT 0.10 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
White Pass 0 LT 0.10 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Mt Hood Meadows LT 0.10 LT 0.25 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
LT 0.10 LT 0.25 LT 0.10 LT 0.10
Hurricane Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Sunday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Mt Baker Ski Area Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Sunday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Washington Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Sunday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Leavenworth Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Sunday 0
Sunday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Stevens Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Sunday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Snoqualmie Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Sunday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Mission Ridge Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Sunday 0
Sunday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Crystal Mt Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Sunday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Paradise Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Sunday Night LT 0.10
Sunday LT 0.10
White Pass Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night 0
Sunday LT 0.10
Sunday Night LT 0.10
Sunday LT 0.10
Mt Hood Meadows Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Sunday LT 0.25
Sunday Night LT 0.10
Sunday LT 0.10
Timberline Precipitation Forecast
Thursday Night LT 0.10
Sunday LT 0.25
Sunday Night LT 0.10
Sunday LT 0.10

Free Winds at 5000' (mph)

Hurricane Ridge Mt. Baker Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Thursday Evening VAR 0 - 10 NE 0 - 10 VAR 0 - 10 VAR 0 - 10 E 0 - 10
Thursday Night VAR 0 - 10 NE 0 - 10 VAR 0 - 10 VAR 0 - 10 VAR 0 - 10
Friday Morning N 0 - 10 NW 0 - 10 WNW 0 - 10 NW 0 - 10 W 0 - 10
Hurricane Ridge Elevation
Thursday Evening VAR 0 - 10
Thursday Night VAR 0 - 10
Friday Morning N 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon NW 5 - 15
Mt. Baker Elevation
Thursday Evening NE 0 - 10
Thursday Night NE 0 - 10
Friday Morning NW 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon NW 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Thursday Evening VAR 0 - 10
Thursday Night VAR 0 - 10
Friday Morning WNW 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon WNW 5 - 15
Mt. Rainier Elevation
Thursday Evening VAR 0 - 10
Thursday Night VAR 0 - 10
Friday Morning NW 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon NW 5 - 15
Mt. Hood Elevation
Thursday Evening E 0 - 10
Thursday Night VAR 0 - 10
Friday Morning W 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon W 5 - 15
Hurricane Ridge Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening VAR 0 - 10
Thursday Night VAR 0 - 10
Friday Morning N 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon NW 5 - 15
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening NE 0 - 10
Thursday Night NE 0 - 10
Friday Morning NW 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon NW 5 - 15
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening VAR 0 - 10
Thursday Night VAR 0 - 10
Friday Morning WNW 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon WNW 5 - 15
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening VAR 0 - 10
Thursday Night VAR 0 - 10
Friday Morning NW 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon NW 5 - 15
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening E 0 - 10
Thursday Night VAR 0 - 10
Friday Morning W 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon W 5 - 15

Directions above indicate the direction the wind blows from on the 16-point cardinal scale. These winds indicate "free" winds, or those winds in the atmosphere not influenced by terrain. Topographical effects may produce greater or lower wind speeds in certain locations as well as significant variations in direction.

Free Winds at 9000' (mph)

Mt. Baker Washington Pass Stevens to Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Rainier Mt. Hood
Thursday Evening NE 0 - 10 NE 0 - 10 NE 0 - 10 NE 0 - 0 SE 0 - 10
Thursday Night NE 0 - 10 NE 0 - 10 NE 0 - 10 NE 0 - 10 SE 0 - 10
Friday Morning NE 0 - 10 NE 0 - 10 NE 0 - 10 NE 0 - 10 VAR 0 - 10
Mt. Baker Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening NE 0 - 10
Thursday Night NE 0 - 10
Friday Morning NE 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon NE 0 - 10
Washington Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening NE 0 - 10
Thursday Night NE 0 - 10
Friday Morning NE 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon NE 0 - 10
Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening NE 0 - 10
Thursday Night NE 0 - 10
Friday Morning NE 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon NE 0 - 10
Mt. Rainier Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening NE 0 - 0
Thursday Night NE 0 - 10
Friday Morning NE 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon N 0 - 10
Mt. Hood Direction - Speed
Thursday Evening SE 0 - 10
Thursday Night SE 0 - 10
Friday Morning VAR 0 - 10
Friday Afternoon VAR 0 - 10

Extended Weather Synopsis for Sunday night through Sunday

The flow aloft will become more westerly on Sunday allowing a weak upper level shortwave into the region and increasing chance of showers in the afternoon. Upper level ridging will briefly build over the area Sunday night and Monday as a developing low pressure system digs off the northern California coast. Warm frontal moisture may reach Oregon and southern Washington by Monday afternoon.  Forecast models continue to diverge after Monday, with the European showing an unsettled but more typical spring-time pattern while the GFS indicates a return to strong westerly flow and the potential for stronger Pacific frontal systems by the end of next week. Perhaps we are not done with winter yet...

Extended Snow/Freezing Levels

Mt. Baker Snoqualmie Pass Mt. Hood Easterly Flow *
Saturday Night Freezing Level 5500' - 6500' 5500' - 6500' 6000' - 7000'
Sunday Freezing Level 5000' - 6000' 5000' - 6000' 5000' - 6000'
Sunday Night Freezing Level 5000' - 6000' 5000' - 6000' 5000' - 6000'
Mt. Baker Elevation
Saturday Night Freezing Level
5500' - 6500'
Sunday Freezing Level
5000' - 6000'
Sunday Night Freezing Level
5000' - 6000'
Monday Snow Level
5500' - 6500'
Snoqualmie Pass Elevation
Saturday Night Freezing Level
5500' - 6500'
Sunday Freezing Level
5000' - 6000'
Sunday Night Freezing Level
5000' - 6000'
Monday Snow Level
5500' - 6500'
Mt. Hood Elevation
Saturday Night Freezing Level
6000' - 7000'
Sunday Freezing Level
5000' - 6000'
Sunday Night Freezing Level
5000' - 6000'
Monday Snow Level
5500' - 6500'

* Easterly flow in the Cascade Passes can cause locally lower Snow or Freezing levels than areas further west.
Freezing Level is when no precipitation is forecast.

Jump to: Weather Forecast I Snow/Freezing Level I Precipitation I Free Winds 5k I Free Winds 9k I Extended Weather

Previous forecast from Mar 28, 2019

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